Aston Villa vs Juventus Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips: Best bets for Wednesday's Champions League clash

Aston Villa meet Juventus at Villa Park in a Champions League clash on Wednesday at 8pm live on TNT Sports and discovery +.

Oli Nixon has previewed the match and presents his best bets.

Having won their first three Champions League fixtures including seeing off giants Bayern, Aston Villa were brought back down to earth with a bump in their last European fixture, failing to lay a glove on Club Brugge.

The Villains still sit 8th in the table but having not won since October 22nd and having lost four of their last five games in all competitions, they’ll be keen to get back on track.

Opponents Juventus sit two points further back in 11th and themselves only have two wins in their last seven. Their last European fixture saw them taught a lesson at home against Stuttgart who racked up 2.52 xg to Juve’s 0.25 and so this is a clash between two sides that are still finding their feet in this campaign.

A key part of Unai Emery’s tactical approach is a high defensive line that draws plenty of opposition offsides. Last season, his Villa side caught their opponents offside a Premier League high of 4.39 times per game and whilst that average has decreased to 2.17 domestically, in European competition, teams have struggled to cope with their offside trap.

All four sides they’ve faced in this competition have had at least three offsides with Brugge and Young Boys both having four each. Juventus have averaged 1.47 offsides per game in all competitions this season but two or more in five of their last eight games. Parma and Udinese have two of the highest lines in Serie A and both forced three offsides from Juventus this season. 

Offsides lead to free kicks and so in backing 15 or more for Villa, if the offsides go as planned then we only need a maximum of 13 fouls to land the second half of this double. Villa have drawn an average of 12.6 fouls per game in the Premier League this season and have taken 14.94 free kicks per game. They’ve had 15 or more free kicks in three of their four Champions League ties, only falling 2 short against Bologna. Juventus don’t give up many fouls at just 10.3 per game but with them desperate for 3 points and Aston Villa’s penchant for drawing them, 15 free kicks feels more than achievable.

With regular forward options Arkadiusz Milik and Dusan Vlahovic looking increasingly unlikely to be fit for this fixture, Juventus are left with a hole to fill up front. Milik has been out since June and Vlahovic trained separately from the first team on Monday having returned from international duty with a muscular injury. For their fixture with AC Milan on Saturday, the number 9 position was filled by midfielder Teun Koopmeiners. The Dutchman has plenty of previous for offsides this season, being flagged 0.39 times per 90 and in two of his three Champions League appearances. 

Strikers are obviously the most likely candidates for offsides and against Aston Villa’s high line, this is no different. Five of the last seven starting number 9’s have had at least 1 offside against them and with Koopmeiners being unfamiliar with the role, the likelihood of him falling victim to their offside trap should be even greater. For those after something a bit longer, the 11/1 about him having two offsides also feels like a great value play if he lines up through the middle again.

Aston Villa vs Juventus Lineups

The starting lineups for Aston Villa vs Juventus will be displayed in the graphic below once the team news has been announced.