Aston Villa vs. Newcastle Betting Tips: Two-data driven picks for the early kick-off

Aston Villa take on Newcastle in the early-kick off in the Premier League on Saturday and our betting expert Scott Thornton has provided us with his best bets for the game which you can read more about below. 

Aston Villa have nothing to lose in this one. They would love to be competing for a place in Europe but their poor start to the season has meant that this is a step too far this season. When Emery came in, his task was to ensure the team were safe from the drop. However, a remarkable run has meant they are now competing for a European spot for next season. They are currently eight points off fourth spot and 10 points behind Newcastle.

Most expected Newcastle to climb the table swiftly once the Saudi takeover was complete but Eddie Howe has achieved more than expected since he took charge at the club midway through last season. The Magpies look set to play in the Champions League next season and this will allow them to make further acquisitions in a bid to become title contenders.

Miguel Almiron and Allan Saint-Maximin are absent for the visitors. Leon Bailey, Matty Cash and Phillipe Coutinho are unavailable for Aston Villa.

Aston Villa have remained unbeaten in their last seven matches, winning six of them. They have been particularly solid at the back during this run, conceding on average just 0.29 goals per game, while also maintaining an attacking threat, scoring an average of 1.86 goals per game. Emery will no doubt be looking to build on this impressive run of form and secure another important victory.

However, standing in their way is Eddie Howe's Newcastle side, who have also been on a fantastic run of form. They have won their last five matches and have climbed up to third in the league table. Newcastle have been particularly impressive going forward on their winning run, scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game, while still maintaining some defensive solidity, conceding on average 0.8 goals per game. 

I expect the home side to give this one a real go. A win would be massive in their pursuit for a place in Europe and it would make a real statement. Adding Aston Villa to find the net to our main builder looks a good pick here. They have scored in all 10 of their home matches under Emery and confidence is certainly high.

Goal kicks for the visitors also look a good bet. Since Emery replaced Gerrard at the helm, Villa’s opponents are averaging 6.63 goal kicks per game. This rises to 7.9 goal kicks per game when we only consider the matches played at Villa Park.

Newcastle are averaging 6.1 goal kicks per game in the league this season. However, they concede less chances when playing at home so this average increased to 7.33 goal kicks per game when only considering matches on the road.

For our longer odds bet we are still only taking Aston Villa to score one goal. Newcastle are solid and it is difficult to see them rolling over at any stage here. However, they have conceded in their last five away matches so I’m happy to include a Villa goal in both bets.

We are also going to back over 7.5 goal kicks for the Geordies. They are taking 7.57 goal kicks per game across their seven away matches in the Premier League this calendar year. Villa’s opponent’s average at this ground under Emery is also marginally above the required line.