Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Betting Tips: Two data driven angles for Saturday's late kick off

When things aren't going a team's way, the last thing you want to be doing is facing the reigning Premier League champions. Well, matters could be about to get a lot worse for Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa, who welcome Manchester City to Villa Park for Saturday's evening kick off.

Manchester City go into this weekend two points off Arsenal in first place, but many have been impressed with how Pep has integrated Haaland into the side. It is difficult to see anyone beating them to the title even at this very early stage, and they could pile on the misery for a struggling Villa side here.

Aston Villa’s only win so far this season came over Everton, and they have been showing the sort of form that would see them embroiled in a relegation battle this season. Publicly, the club are backing manager Steven Gerrard, but patience is wearing thin with many of the Villa faithful. An embarrassing result at the hands of City here could spell the end for Gerrard.

City have a +14 goal difference after 5 games, and Erling Haaland comes into this match in search of a third consecutive hat-trick. City beat Villa by just the one goal margin in both meetings last season, but the form suggests this one could well be more one sided.

Manchester City have controlled large sections of their games so far, and they have dominated the ball throughout. This has meant there has been very few throws in their matches. Pep’s side averaged the fewest throws in the league last season, and it looks as though that trend will continue. Their league matches so far this season have seen 23, 20, 27, 30 and 28 throws in the match.

Villa’s recent match against Arsenal saw them dominated for large spells, and I think this match will play out in a similar manner. There were just 28 throws in that match.

I’m going to add under 33.5 throws in the match to our main bet here. There were just 31 throws when these sides met at Villa park last season, and I can’t see the home side looking to hound City in possession. They will more likely opt to sit back and hit the visitors on the counter. Hunting for the ball and allowing City space to play into could be disastrous for Villa, given how many goals Pep’s men have scored already.

I’m also going to add over 6.5 goal kicks for the home side. Villa had 9 goal kicks in this fixture last season, and they had a staggering 20 when the teams met at the Etihad. So far this season, City opponents have had 11, 15, 4, 11 and 9 goal kicks.

For the longshot, I’m going to use the same angles as the main bet but increase the lines. City games so far have shown that they can force a huge amount of goal kicks. Throws have also been extremely scarce. I’m also going to add Erling Haaland to score.

This bet has landed in 2 of City’s 5 matches this season. The throws and goal kicks part of the bet has landed in 3 out of 5.