Arsenal vs West Ham Odds: Three picks including outrageous 292/1 shot

Wednesday night sees four games being played live and exclusively on BT Sport in the Premier League and we'll have previews on all of them. We've enlisted our regular tipster @JimmyThePunt to have a good look at the fixture between Arsenal and West Ham and he's come up with three selections including a ridiculously priced 292/1 shot! 

Two top-four hopefuls both from the big smoke clash at The Emirates on Wednesday. The hosts have had the better of recent exchanges taking 13 of the last 18 points up for grabs and only losing once in that time. However, if the game has anywhere near as much action as when these sides last met- six goals and four cards - then we are in for a treat whatever the result. 

Arsenal come into this one on the back of a 3-0 victory over Southampton, though not many of their recent games have gone to plan like that, epitomised by the fact that this was only their third win in their last six games. 

Despite this patchy form, ex-captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang dominates their headlines for all the wrong reasons as he has been suspended by the club and stripped of the captaincy after his "latest disciplinary breach".  This will mean Alexandre Lacazette spearheads AFC with Martin Ødegaard in behind in a 4-4-1-1 formation. 

As for the visitors, David Moyes has no fresh injury concerns but could shuffle his deck following the 0-0 draw at Turf Moor last time out with Pablo Fornals and Nikola Vlasic potentially replacing Said Benrahma and Manuel Lanzini.

I never really tip domestic draws because it is hard to do so with any real conviction. In a knock-out competition when it suits both parties it makes obvious sense, it is also a play in extreme weather conditions or if the teams styles clash but with none of the above being really applicable here I guess the main reason I fancy it is just because. Not much help I know. 

Odds wise, the Hammers are the value at 23/10 as that implies an expected chance of victory of 30%, however, the visitors have won 50% of their games when priced accordingly. 

It is also worth noting that David Moyes has a stellar record against the ‘big six’ as West Ham’s boss. Their most recent scalp was the 3-2 victory over Chelsea at the start of the month and that was one of three victories that they have completed over the big boys this season, Liverpool and Spurs being their other victims. 

Since the start of last season, the Hammers have picked up points in 41% of their 17 games against the big six with only two or more goals separating the sides in three of these games over that period. 

So, price wise WHU are the value and they have rarely been battered in their recent bouts against the big boys. However, I still think the draw is the play and that is because of Arsenal’s record at the Emirates. No side in the league has picked up more points at home than Arsenal’s 19 this season, in fact that tally is only equalled by league leaders Man City. 

On their own turf, the Gooners have; played eight, won six, drawn one and lost one and with an xG goal difference of +8.74 they have certainly been good value for that record. In fact, excluding the 0-2 defeat against Chelsea in their first home game of the season, they have won the xG battle in all seven of their home games. 

All things considered I think the draw is the most logical option and would advise a point on it. 

With Anthony Taylor in charge of this fixture, the player card markets are worth delving into as he has brandished an average of 4.34 cards per game in the EPL this season. 

Given the discrepancy in price for a Michail Antonio card across the different bookies, it looks a bet worth pursuing as Spreadex have him at 23/10 yet Betfair and Paddy Power have him at 11/2. 

Staggeringly, the Jamaican international has already bested his domestic card total for the past four seasons with 5Y and 1R in just 15 appearances. That is a card per 90 average for the season of 0.40%, which translates to a price of 6/4, and whilst it does seem unlikely this ill-discipline will continue through-out the season, it reinforces the idea that Betfair’s price is worth taking on. 

There is no outstanding positional difference for Antonio from last season to this that might explain the spike in cards, though it is worth noting that his defensive output has increased drastically. He has already attempted two more tackles than he did last season and completed five more (13) in 630 minutes less game time. 

Given the fact that he tops his sides charts for cards (6) and fouls per game (1.5) and has been booked in two of his last three appearances against Arsenal, I think this punt is worth half a point. 

If you fancy something outrageously long, you can combine both Antonio and Alexandre Lacazette to score and be carded at 292/1 with Betfair. This angle almost landed when these sides last met as both were carded, Laccazette scored but Antonio was denied by the woodwork. 

Antonio’s ill-discipline is matched by his goal scoring ability as WHU’s talisman has six goals to his name this season, he also found the net on his last league visit to the Emirates. 

Lacazette is yet to pick up a card this season but, like his opposite number, tops his sides charts for fouls per game (1.4). After committing five fouls in his last two starts he is due a card though. 

With Aubameyang ostracised, the Frenchman will have to shoulder the majority of the goalscoring responsibility and this is not something he has struggled with against West Ham, scoring three goals in his last three appearances against them. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.