Arsenal vs Everton Prediction and Betting Tips: Two-stats based punts for potential title decider
Posted: 14:30 Friday 17th May 2024
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The curtain comes down on the Premier League season on Sunday and Arsenal still have a slim chance of winning the title. They welcome Everton to the Emirates but it’s out of the Gunners’ hands.
Scott Thornton weighs in on this final day encounter with two stats-based bets for the action.
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Mikel Arteta’s used to work under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City. He has moulded Arsenal into title contenders since taking the step up to management. However, toppling his former master and becoming champions of England is proving to be a tricky task.
Sean Dyche has had to deal with a lot of noise off the pitch this season. Everton have been hit with two points deductions and the potential sale of the club remains up in the air. Despite the setbacks, the Toffees have retained their status as a Premier League club with ease. They may be forced to sell some players this summer but there is room for cautious optimism with a new stadium on the horizon.
Arsenal vs Everton Tips
Over 15.5 Everton Tackles & Over 1.5 Arsenal Goals
Arsenal need a win to have any hope of winning the title and I expect them to deliver a good performance. Therefore, our main bet focuses on Everton tackles and Arsenal goals.
Sean Dyche’s sides often embrace the physical side of the game. As a result, Everton have made the second most tackles in the top tier of English football this season with an average of 19.62 per game. This drops slightly to 18.89 in their matches on the road but it is still above the required mark for this bet to land.
Arsenal are known for their possession-based style but have several direct dribbler in their ranks, particularly in wide areas. This means they force a decent amount of tackles. The Gunners’ opponents at the Emirates this season have made an average of 16.72 tackles per game. The Toffees made 19 tackles when Arsenal travelled to Goodison earlier in the season.
We are also backing Arsenal to score at least two goals in the match. Arteta’s side have scored an average of 2.41 goals per game in the Premier League this season. They have really found their clinical side since the turn of the year. Their 17 league matches over that period have seen them score an average of 3.06 goals. Arsenal have scored two goals or more in all bar one of their home matches in 2024.
Everton have conceded two goals or more in nine of their last 10 matches at the Emirates. Arsenal have scored an average of 2.8 goals per game over that period so the signs are ominous for the away side ahead of this match.
Over 15.5 Everton Tackles, Over 3.5 Arsenal Goals & Over 11.5 Arsenal Free Kicks
Our longer odds bet also features 16+ tackles for Everton. The other angles are Arsenal to score at least four and win 12 free kicks or more.
The Gunners netted four times in this fixture last season and are averaging 3.61 goals per league home game in 2024. They have showcased their ruthless side of late and they could go on to score a glut of goals if they get one early.
Everton are committing an average of 12.05 fouls per league game this season but the free kick count also included offsides. Arsenal had 13 free kicks when the sides met in September. Arteta’s men had 14 free kicks in the last meeting at the Emirates.
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