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World Cup Betting Tips: Back Netherlands to be the top Group Stage scorers

Our tipster Scott Thornton dives into his best bets for the World Cup.
Our tipster Scott Thornton dives into his best bets for the World Cup.

The World Cup is almost upon us and our man @ScottThornton has provided us with his best bets for the tournament in Qatar.

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World Cup Tips

World Cup Odds
Over 165 Goals in the Tournament
11/8
Odds correct as of 2022-11-16 15:45 Odds subject to change.

This bet has landed in the last 2 tournaments. The last World Cup saw the net found 169 times across the tournament, while there were 171 goals in 2014. The latter was the joint record along with the 1998 tournament in France.

The fact the last 2 tournaments have been close to breaking the record suggests an upward trend in terms of goals. There are always great goal scorers at the World Cup, but many of them face minnows in their respective groups. Harry Kane won the Golden Boot with 6 goals in 2018; 3 of these goals came against Panama. The big teams and their strikers dreaming of finishing as the top scorer will be keen to put the lowly teams to the sword in the hunt for personal accolades.

The goals continued to fly in the most recent major tournament. There were 142 goals scored across 51 games (an average of 2.78 goals per game) in last year’s European Championship. The World Cup features 64 games; meaning that rate would see this tournament finish with 178 goals scored.

Russia 2018 was the first time that VAR was used at a major tournament. There were 29 penalty kicks awarded (excluding shootouts) in that tournament. I expect there to be a similar number this winter and this should help inflate the amount of goals we see. Over 165 goals scored at 2.37 with Bet 365 looks a great price. 

World Cup Top Scorer Odds
Netherlands Group Stage Top Scorer
8/1
Odds correct as of 2022-11-16 15:50 Odds subject to change.

Louis Van Gaal’s side are averaging 2.5 goals per game in their last 10 competitive matches.

They face Qatar, Ecuador and Senegal in the group stage. This group looks considerably easier than the teams’ who are above them in the betting. France have to take Denmark, Australia and Tunisia. Brazil face Switzerland, Cameroon and Serbia. While Argentina play against Poland, Mexico and Saudi Arabia.

The Dutch have the quality to put a few goals on each of the three teams in their group so I like the look of this one for a longer odds bet. Just 3 teams finished the groups with more than 7 goals in the last World Cup (England, Belgium and Russia). England finished the group with 8 goals; scoring 6 of them against Panama. Belgium were top group stage scorers with 9.

If the Dutch keep up their rate of scoring form the last 10 matches, they will be right up there on the goals front in Qatar. They have taken on Belgium, Poland and Wales in their Nations League group, so their fixtures in the World Cup should see them have more control than they did in those matches. 8/1 for them to be the top scorers in the group looks to have some value.

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World Cup Odds

Brazil
WIN PROB: 29%
1
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9/4
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9/4
France
WIN PROB: 15%
1
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5/1
Spain
WIN PROB: 12%
1
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6/1
England
WIN PROB: 10%
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Argentina
WIN PROB: 10%
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Portugal
WIN PROB: 8%
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Germany
WIN PROB: 7%
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Netherlands
WIN PROB: 5%
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Croatia
WIN PROB: 1%
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Denmark
WIN PROB: 1%
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Belgium
WIN PROB: 1%
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United States
WIN PROB: 1%
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Uruguay
WIN PROB: 1%
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Switzerland
WIN PROB: 1%
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Morocco
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Senegal
WIN PROB: 1%
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Serbia
WIN PROB: 0%
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Poland
WIN PROB: 0%
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Ecuador
WIN PROB: 0%
Ghana
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Australia
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Japan
WIN PROB: 0%
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Saudi Arabia
WIN PROB: 0%
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Mexico
WIN PROB: 0%
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Iran
WIN PROB: 0%
South Korea
WIN PROB: 0%
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Costa Rica
WIN PROB: 0%
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Cameroon
WIN PROB: 0%
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Tunisia
WIN PROB: 0%
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Wales
WIN PROB: 0%
Qatar
WIN PROB: 0%
Canada
WIN PROB: 0%
Each Way Terms
Show More
Odds correct as of 2022-11-30 03:00 Odds subject to change.
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