World Cup 2022: Winning Confederation Betting Odds
The World Cup is rapidly approaching and the outright market has now been well and truly cemented. The market is normally dominated by European teams but this year we’re seeing two South American teams headline the betting. With this in mind, we've had a closer inspection of the Winning Confederations Odds market...
A market has been released for the winning confederation and despite the early market domination from Brazil and Argentina it's UEFA (Europe) that comes in as the 4/9 favourite with Paddy Power.
CONMEBOL (South America) follows as the 15/8 second, then after that the rest of the world share fairly similar odds.
Below we’ve taken a look at the winning confederation outright market to check out where the value is, as well as grouping the participating nations together in their respective categories.
UEFA - 3/10
CAF - 50/1
CONCACAF - 50/1
- Costa Rica
- United States
AFC - 100/1
- South Korea
- Saudi Arabia
Now there’s a reason the European sides are so heavily favoured, I mean, just look at the list of teams. Two South American sides may be leading the betting but shortly after them, European domination is in place.
France, England, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium and Denmark all follow Argentina in the betting and are all given a fair crack at the World Cup with Denmark being the least likely of them at 28/1 which really is implying they’re still in with a chance.
Despite Brazil always seemingly leading the betting they’ve only managed to win one of the last five World Cups with the other four going to European nations. In fact, going all the way back to England’s famous win in 1966, South American nations have only won five World Cups with the remaining nine going to European teams.
The defending champions of the World, France, are Europe’s best chance according to the bookmakers, however, some firms are pricing them the same as England at around the 7/1 mark.
Whilst England have had to endure a few years of hurt recently, they’re definitely on the up with their semi-final appearance at the 2018 World Cup and just narrowly losing to Italy in the Euros final.
France and England are actually predicted to be meeting each other in the semi-finals but with their side of the draw being massively dominated by UEFA teams, one of them is near enough guaranteed to get to the final.
At first glance, 15/8 for a South American team looks like a huge price considering Brazil and Argentina are leading the outright betting market. But unfortunately for punters, it ain’t all sunshine and rainbows!
Both Brazil and Argentina are expected to meet each other in the semi-finals providing they both top their group and it’d be a massive shock for either of them to not finish top. Both teams are priced at 3/10 to top their group so anything other than that would be a big upset.
Of course, you have Uruguay and Ecuador to bolster your chances of winning but I don’t think many of us see them going too far.
Brazil will be the most attractive part of this bet as they do come in as the 4/1 favourites with most firms. Backing CONMEBOL to win is giving you that insurance when it reaches the semi-finals if you can’t decide between the two South American nations. Brazil have looked really solid recently and Brazilians seem to be firing at club level.
Argentina are actually on a three-year unbeaten streak with their last loss being to Brazil in 2019; Brazil have a similar stat where their last loss is actually to Argentina in the Copa America final.
Ultimately you are still betting on Brazil or Argentina to bring home World Cup glory.
Without sounding too disrespectful to the other nations, they’re ultimately stuck in the shadow of the big teams.
Now we’ve seen upsets before in major competitions, just ask Greece who were a massive price to win Euro 2004. However, they were ultimately all-European teams.
UEFA and CONMEBOL teams are the only teams to ever win the World Cup and no other confederation has even made the final. Now, it would be absolutely monumental if one of these confederations went all the way - you could argue it would be bigger than Leicester winning the Premier League - but the bookmakers have priced them nowhere near the prices you would have got Leicester at, which was 5,000/1.
CONCACAF (North American, Central American and Caribbean) and CAF (Africa) are both 50/1 to produce a maiden World Cup winner, while AFC (Asia) is out at 150/1.
You’d say the best chances for any of these nations to win would be either Senegal, Mexico, Ecuador, USA or South Korea. I can’t think of many who would want to back these teams so really I’d save your pennies for something else.