
Wolves vs Aston Villa Prediction, Lineups and Odds: 11/4 fancy for tonight's clash

This evening's televised Premier League clash between Midlands rivals Wolves and Aston Villa is fast-approaching at Molineux with kick-off set for 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event.
This fixture has a history of fiery encounters, with the last two meetings producing 16 bookings. Another hard-fought battle is expected as both sides chase crucial points for very different reasons.
Oli Nixon has analysed the matchup and shared his top betting picks ahead of the action.
Wolves vs Aston Villa Predictions
Having started well at Wolves, three consecutive defeats have emphasised the size of the task facing Vitor Pereira as his side occupy the last of the relegation places in the table. Aston Villa have slipped to seventh, four points off the top four and will be desperate for three points to kickstart their charge towards the big boys. However, they’ve struggled to win games after midweek Champions League games this season and it remains to be seen how they recover from Wednesday’s match against Celtic.
One of my favourite angles for betting props is managerial changes and with Vitor Pereira having managed eight games at Wolves, we can now draw some conclusions from their data under his stewardship. The first noticeable thing is that they’ve drawn 17.7 tackles per game with their opponents making at least 14 in seven of those matches. Aston Villa themselves average 17.7 tackles per game in the Premier League and have had 14 or more in 10 of their last 11. In their last two head-to-heads with Wolves, they’ve made 22 and 24 tackles.
On the free kicks front, Villa are the second most fouled team in the division, drawing 13 per game. They also play a well-documented high line under Emery that when combined with these fouls drawn, sees them averaging 15.57 free kicks per game. Wolves under Pereira have given away 15.13 free kicks per game and in the last four meetings between these sides, Villa have had free kick totals of 21, 21, 22 and 23.
The final tactical change under the Portuguese manager is that Wolves have a high line of their own. They’ve drawn 2.88 per game in his eight games in charge with seven of their opponents having at least one. Aston Villa have had at least one offside in each of their last 11 games in all competitions and have racked up 23 offsides in those fixtures. They’ve also had an offside in each of the last nine head-to-heads.
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Tyrone Mings limping off once again last weekend has left Aston Villa with a centre back crisis as Pau Torres is also injured and Diego Carlos has left for Turkey. Against West Ham, that meant that Lucas Digne had to deputise in the middle of the back line and whilst this causes issues defensively, it also presents a betting opportunity going forwards.
Villa’s lack of height at the back leaves Ezri Konsa as the main set piece threat and that makes his odds for a shot stand out. He’s only had five shots all season but two of those came against Wolves at Villa Park where he scored Villa’s second goal. He also had two shots in the previous meeting between these sides and so clearly something about this derby gets him fired up.
Wolves are the worst side at defending set pieces in the Premier League, conceding a massive 17 goals from them at 0.74 per game. 32% of their goals conceded this season have come from set plays and with only Arsenal having scored more goals from such situations than Aston Villa, it feels an obvious angle to attack. Even under a new manager, Wolves have failed to stem the flow of set piece goals against them, conceding 2.08xg from them in their last two matches and so with Konsa the only real aerial threat, we have to back him for a shot at the price.
Wolves vs Aston Villa Bet Boosts
Wolves vs Aston Villa Lineups
The starting lineups for Wolves vs Aston Villa can be viewed in the graphic below.
Wolves have made three changes with Toti, Bellegarde and Guedes all in the starting lineup.
There are two changes for Aston Villa as Garcia and McGinn come in for the visitors.
# | Starting XI | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | José Pedro Malheiro de Sá | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
24 | Tote António Gomes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
12 | Emmanuel Elysee Djedje Agbadou Badobre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Matthew James Doherty | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Rayan Aït-Nouri | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
27 | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
7 | André Trindade da Costa Neto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
22 | Nélson Cabral Semedo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
10 | Matheus Santos Carneiro da Cunha | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
21 | Pablo Sarabia García | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
29 | Gonçalo Manuel Ganchinho Guedes | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
# | Substitutes | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
37 | Pedro Henrique Cardoso de Lima | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
28 | Tawanda Chirewa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15 | Craig Dawson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
20 | Thomas Glyn Doyle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
26 | Carlos Roberto Forbs Borges | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
19 | Rodrigo Martins Gomes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
11 | Hee-Chan Hwang | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
31 | Samuel Luke Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
# | Starting XI | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
23 | Damián Emiliano Martínez Romero | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
12 | Lucas Digne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
44 | Boubacar Bernard Kamara | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
16 | Andrés García Robledo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8 | Youri Marion Tielemans | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
26 | Lamare Trenton Chansey Bogarde | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
41 | Jacob Matthew Ramsey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7 | John McGinn | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
27 | Morgan Elliot Rogers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
11 | Oliver George Arthur Watkins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
# | Substitutes | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 | Leon Patrick Bailey Butler | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
56 | Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
22 | Ian Ethan Maatsen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
17 | Donyell Malen | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
24 | Amadou Ba Zeund Georges Mvom Onana | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
20 | Kosta Nedeljković | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
25 | Robin Patrick Olsen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
50 | Sil Laurentius Swinkels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
48 | Oliwier Zych | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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