West Ham vs Man City Prediction and Betting Tips: Examine Scott Thornton's two data-driven bets
Posted: 10:24 Friday 30th August 2024
West Ham host Manchester City in Saturday’s late kick-off in the Premier League. The Hammers are looking to deal an early blow to Pep Guardiola’s side early in the campaign.
Scott Thornton is on hand with his two best bets for the 5:30pm game, which have been extrapolated using his data-driven model for finding value bets.
West Ham vs Man City Predictions
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Julen Lopetegui replaced David Moyes as West Ham boss in the summer. The board have backed the new manager with lavish spending but it will take some time for the former Real Madrid boss to put his stamp on this team.
Manchester City have had a quiet summer by their standards. A deal for Savinho from Troyes, who are also owned by City Football Group, was wrapped up early on. Julian Alvarez departed for Atletico Madrid but Pep still have enough to talent to challenge on all fronts once again.
Manchester City To Win & Over 14.5 Tackles For West Ham
West Ham have ushered in a new era by changing the manager but ending their dismal run against Manchester City will prove to be a difficult task. The Hammers haven’t won any of their last 20 matches against the Citizens. Over that period, they are conceding an average of 2.65 goals per game and scoring just 0.60. Manchester City beat West Ham 3-1 in both league meetings last season. As a result, the first of our betting angles is for the champions to win.
Pep Guardiola’s team beat Ipswich 4-1 last weekend. They fell behind against the run of play but coasted to victory. Manchester City kept 75% possession and afforded the Tractor Boys just one opportunity to shoot. The champions have already been victorious in London this season with a 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge on the opening day. They should make light work of this one.
The Hammers have lost their only home game under the new manager. They were beaten 2-1 by Aston Villa on the opening weekend of the Premier League season.
The next of our picks is for West Ham to make over 14.5 tackles in the match. The Hammers made 14 tackles in both of their matches against City last season but there are reasons to believe we should see an increased tackle count here.
Lopetegui has proven himself as a coach who is able to set up his teams well when out of possession. West Ham have been more proactive when the opposition have the ball and the manager’s organised but high-intensity press should start to bear fruit.
The Hammers made an average of 18 tackles per Premier League game last season. This decreased slightly to 17.16 in their home matches but that’s still above the required mark for this bet to land.
Manchester City forced an average of 16.79 tackles per league game in the last campaign. Their patient approach with the ball means that there isn’t always an opportunity for the opposition to get a tackle in but there have been some changes ahead of this season.
The acquisition of Savinho means that City have both him and Doku occupying the flanks. Doku ranks in the top 1% for progressive carries for an attacking midfielder or winger in the last year when compared with all others across Europe’s top five leagues. Savinho ranks in the top 7%. Chelsea made 20 tackles in City’s only away game of the season so far.
Manchester City To Win By 2 Or More, Over 18.5 Tackles For West Ham & Under 21.5 Free Kicks
For our longer odds bet, we are backing Manchester City to win the match by two or more goals and over 18.5 tackles. Our other betting angle is under 21.5 free kicks.
There were just 18 free kicks when these teams last squared off in May. The last meeting at this ground saw 19 free kicks. Michael Oliver is at the whistle for this one. There have been 21 free kicks or less in the last two Manchester City league matches he has officiated.
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