West Ham v West Brom Tips: Back Ajayi to test Fabianski in Tuesday's early kick-off
Gameweek 19 commences on Tuesday evening in the capital as West Ham welcome West Brom to the London Stadium. I’ve picked out a few selections from the shot and card markets which include a 390/1 long-shot.
Both sides edged past their opponents at the weekend. The Baggies secured their first victory under the reign of Sam Allardyce in dramatic fashion by beating Wolves 3-2 in the Black Country derby. For tomorrow’s hosts, Michail Antonio’s early strike was enough to secure the spoils as they defeated Burnley on home soil.
Saturday’s narrow win means that David Moyes’ men have gone five unbeaten in all competitions, winning the last three, putting them level on points with Chelsea. The bookies have them as clear favourites to come out on top here with odds that imply there is a 64% chance of a home victory. Arthur Masuaku and Fabian Balbuena remain the only long term absentees and with no fresh injury concerns the Hammers will most likely field an unchanged XI.
The visitors' first away win of the season has hoisted them six points clear of bottom of the table but they remain five points adrift of safety. Sam Allerdyce’s men have not been shy of criticism from their new supremo, however, he may reward the starting eleven that beat Wolves by reinstating them for their clash in the big smoke.
- Ajayi Shot on Target at odds of 7/1 with Betfair
- Livermore Card at Odds of 29/10 with Betvictor
- Ajayi Shot on Target, Rice 2 Shots and Livermore and Ogbonna Cards at odds of 390/1 with Betfair
I tipped this a few weeks ago and was surprised to see a similar price still available. Betfair and Paddy Power have Semi Ajayi to register a shot on target at 7/1, the same bet is only 7/2 elsewhere.
Ajayi did not muster a single effort in his first ten Premier League appearances but has managed five in his last seven games. The Baggies centre half has two goals to his name - it could have been three if one was not given as an own goal - and has registered a shot on target in half of his most recent four starts.
With the likes of Rice, Soucek, Dawson and Ogbonna amongst the Hammers ranks, a Semi Ajayi SoT will be no mean feat but at 7/1 I think it has to be worth a punt.
Although it has not been priced at the time of writing, I also want to doff my cap to another potentially big price; Semi Ajayi headed shot on target. This opened at 12/1 last game with Betfair and Paddy Power and given his head was the source of his most recent goal it may be a bet worthy of a few quid.
Despite the fact that Conor Gallagher is back available following suspension, Jake Livermore looks set to retain his spot in the engine room after captaining the Baggies to victory at the weekend.
Livermore only has three cards to his name this season - two yellows and one red - but averaged over ten a season during his last two in the Championship. In the EPL, he tops West Brom’s charts for fouls per game (2.2) and will have a job keeping that figure down tomorrow covering the likes of Antonio, Bowen and Benrahma.
Using Betfair’s same game multi feature, you can combine the first two selections with Rice to register two shots and an Ogbonna card at odds of 390/1.
This season, Declan Rice has registered at least two shots on seven occasions for club and country, all vs sides deploying a low block similar to the one that Big Sam will likely opt for tomorrow. Rice had multiple efforts in West Ham’s most recent EPL game vs Burnley and he may fancy himself from range tomorrow given how much time he will have on the ball around the box.
With three cards to his name, Angelo Ogbonna is West Ham’s most booked player this campaign. The Italian has averaged a foul per appearance and may make it two cards in as many games as he opposes the Baggies attacking catalyst Matheus Pereira. A player that has drawn an average of 1.7 fouls per game.
Good luck to anyone following these tips and please remember to gamble responsibly.