West Ham United v Chelsea Tips: The 9/4 bet that is 4/6 elsewhere
West Ham host Chelsea at the London Stadium on Wednesday, where they will have a chance to complete a double over their city counterparts for the first time since 2003. However there is much more at stake in this one than local bragging rights, as the Hammers sit one place above the relegation zone but level on points with Aston Villa 19th with only one win in their last 11 league games.
Chelsea on the other hand have the chance to go five points clear of Wolves and potentially Manchester United if the Red Devils manage to win at Brighton on Tuesday night. Frank Lampard’s side have won their last five games on the bounce and in the process have beaten Liverpool, Manchester City and Leicester, with bet365 going just 1/4 about Chelsea to finish in the Premier League top four betting.
Christian Pulisic has been in fine form for Chelsea but is a doubt for the game after coming off in the FA Cup tie against Leicester on Sunday with tightness in his calf. Both Robert Snodgrass and Sebastien Haller remained sidelined for West Ham but Arthur Masuaku could be in line for a return after an ankle injury.
The match can be see live on Sky Sports Premier League kicking off at 20:15 and having a look at the match odds we have the hosts top priced at 5/1 with BetVictor, while after already being well-backed Chelsea are now 4/7 with most bookmakers; the draw can be backed at 16/5 with William Hill.
I’ve picked out three fancies for this game and my first is Chelsea to win and under 4.5 goals. This is a big game for Chelsea and I’m expecting them to put in a big performance after resting a few in the FA Cup at the weekend. They’ve been well-backed in the market and are now just 4/7 for the win which is a little short for me. However, now boosted to evens from 10/11 by the good folk at Betfair, a win for the Blues and under 4.5 match goals looks a good price.
All of Chelsea’s last 15 wins have included under 4.5 goals and they are in great form at the moment having won five on the bounce. The players really seem to be listening to the manager and a Champions League finish would be an excellent achievement this season. Just one game out of the 25 since the restart in the Premier League has seen over 4.5 goals and with the lack of intensity and with so many games being 0-0 at half time, I’m happy to add the under 4.5 goals to a Chelsea Win.
West Ham have been really disappointing since the restart with two 2-0 defeats to Wolves and Tottenham. In both of those games they only managed two shots on target and with Sebastien Haller out injured, Michail Antonio has been having to lead the line. They have won just one of their last eleven and I don’t see them taking anything from this, so a Chelsea win and under 4.5 goals at even money is the play from me.
My next selection is one that is priced up at just 4/6 on Skybet but 9/4 with Betfair, and that is for Marcos Alonso to have one or more shots on target. The Spaniard has actually scored four times in just 11 starts in the league this season and should be fresh after being rested for the game against Leicester at the weekend. I see him getting forward lots here against a West Ham side who will be without the ball for long periods of time.
Having a look at the numbers I was shocked to see that Alonso (1.6) is actually averaging more shots per game than forward Oliver Giroud (1.4). Of those 1.6 shots from Alonso, 0.5 per game on average are hitting the target so in around 50% of his matches. Betfair have given this an implied probability of 31% as opposed to the 60% implied odds from Skybet. He’s also a potential free kick taker and with all factors considered I’ll be having a nibble on the 9/4 from Betfair.
As always I like to put something up at a fancy price for those who like longer odds shots and I’ve picked out two players who I think could well be carded in this London derby with the double weighing in at 50/1 with Paddy Power.
As mentioned earlier Michail Antonio has been playing as a centre-forward for West Ham with the absence of Haller and he’s been very much isolated with very few chances in the games I’ve seen him play there recently. I see this being the case again tomorrow evening against Chelsea with Antonio being frustrated and more liable to a silly foul due to the lack of service.
One thing that needs to be noted here is that Michail Antonio is actually averaging more fouls per game than any other member of his squad, but despite this he is the biggest price of any player to be carded for the clash at a huge 7/1 with bet365.
Alongside Antonio to be booked, I’ve also opted for Chelsea’s N’golo Kante to be carded. He’s been booked four times this season and is committing more fouls per game on average (2.2) than any other Chelsea player. I think Noble and Rice will give him a tough game in the centre of the park and it’s also worth noting that if Kante does not start I will be replacing him with Jorginho which would take us to around the 33/1 mark.
Having a look at the prices elsewhere I can see that the double on Antonio and Kante to be carded is as short as 18/1 with Coral, so I do feel we are getting a nice price here from both Paddy Power and Betfair who are 50/1 and 55/1 respectively at the time of writing.
As always please enjoy the game and gamble responsibly and for any amendments or changes due to team news please give me a follow on Twitter @AnthonyEadson where you’ll find my replacements.