West Ham vs. Newcastle Betting Tips: Back Kehrer to be carded in the capital

West Ham host Newcastle in the Premier League on Wednesday and we've asked Tom Winch to provide us with a preview for the match and his best data-driven bets. 

Newcastle’s season has been remarkable in the Premier League, Eddie Howe’s side sit in 3rd place level on points with Spurs and Man United, but their goal difference is far superior to those clubs. The Hammers are 14th, just a single point above the drop with just 11 games left to play in what’s been an underwhelming campaign in East London.

West Ham have been underperforming a hefty amount, only four sides have conceded fewer expected goals. 25 goals have been scored in their 27 top flight matches despite creating upwards of 36 based on the metrics. Their away results are as bad as anyone’s in the division but at home is where they’ll be needing to earn the points in order to play top level football for another season.

David Moyes’ side earned all three points last weekend in a 1-0 win against bottom placed Southampton, a much needed result. 21 of their 27 points have come in-front of the home fans who have seen their side avoid defeat at the London Stadium in each of their previous five matches.

Newcastle recorded a brilliant win over Man United on Sunday afternoon, they were the better side throughout the entire 90 minutes and thoroughly deserved all three points. The Magpies have now won three games on the spin heading into the capital where they’ve lost just once in five trips at this stadium.

I’m combining two selections for my main bet in this one that make an even money play. Alexander Isak has been a fantastic signing for Newcastle, his shot record is pretty impressive and I’m confident that he’ll record at least two on Wednesday night.

The Swede has started eight games in the Premier League for Newcastle this campaign, he’s attempted multiple shots in seven of those matches with 12 arriving in his previous three outings.

Newcastle often take a fair few goal kicks on their travels, they average 6.46 against per 90 with six or more being taken in 10 of their 13 away fixtures which includes eight of their last nine. 

10 of West Ham’s 14 away opponents have seen this line land against them, they’re in desperate need of points and struggle to put the ball in the back of the net so may need to continue the attacking pressure for a high percentage of the 90.

With Kehrer likely to start at right back, he’ll be matched up against Allan Saint-Maximin. We all know just how tricky the Newcastle winger is on his day and with the price on offer, it’s too big to ignore.

West Ham have the lowest number of bookings in the entire Premier League but Kehrer has the joint most for his club with four. 

Craig Pawson is in charge for this clash, he’s brandished 70 yellow cards in 17 top flight matches this campaign which averages 4.12 per 90.

With this being a huge game for both sides for different reasons, this game could become intense. Both clubs will be looking to win, but of course, neither will want to walk away empty handed.