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West Ham the market movers ahead of gameweek 33; odds suggest destiny is sealed for the bottom-three

Bournemouth find themselves in dire straits heading into the season's final stretch
Bournemouth find themselves in dire straits heading into the season's final stretch

With Liverpool winning the title last week, the main talking points in the top-flight revolve around which side will break into the top-four and secure their Champions League status next season, and which three sides will face the drop.

As things stand, only seven points separate bottom side Norwich and 17th-placed Watford, who currently occupy the final position of safety with just six games remaining, meaning the Premier League relegation odds are changing at a rapid rate. 

Southampton in 14th look to be home and dry following an impressive 3-1 win over Watford last weekend. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side have hit the elusive 40-point mark and now have a welcome 12-point cushion on the bottom-three. 

Brighton - 15th, 33 points

Brighton, in 15th, have been hovering precariously over the relegation zone for large parts of the campaign but since the restart have impressed, beating Arsenal in their first game back before drawing with third-placed Leicester. 

Despite a heavy 3-0 loss at home to a much-improved Manchester United side in midweek, Graham Potter’s side do have the luxury of a six-point gap standing between themselves and 18th-placed Aston Villa.

While the Seagulls are by no means high and dry at this point, they do stand a great chance of staying up this season, and the bookies are now giving them just a 4% chance of relegation to the Championship, with their odds to go down drifting from 11/4 (pre-Arsenal win) to a huge 25/1.

Brighton have some tricky games against the likes of Liverpool and Manchester City approaching, but they still also have fixtures against Norwich, Southampton, Newcastle, Burnley from now until the end of the season; games where they could easily pick up some more valuable points due to most of those sides now having little to play for.

Premier League Odds

West Ham - 16th, 30 points

West Ham looked doomed before Wednesday’s phenomenal win over Chelsea at the London Stadium. Few gave David Moyes’ side a chance prior to kick-off, with the Blues beating Man City in their last league outing just over a week ago, but they dug in and showed a huge amount of dedication to come from a goal behind to beat Frank Lampard’s men 3-2 on home soil. 

That result could prove to be huge for the Hammers. On Wednesday morning the east Londoners were as short as 15/8 for the drop but now they can be found at odds of 7/1 - a market mover if ever I did see. 

The job is far from complete, however, with only three points separating West Ham from the bottom-three, but with a hugely favourable run-in approaching which includes games against Newcastle, Burnley, Norwich and Watford, their chances of survival look much healthier than they did just a few days ago.

 

Watford - 17th, 28 points

17th-placed Watford sit just a point above the drop zone and currently find themselves in really poor form. Nigel Pearson’s side were extremely lucky to take a point from an out of sorts Leicester side on their return to action last month, with Craig Dawson’s last-gasp goal rescuing a draw for the Hornets at Vicarage Road.

Since then, a dismal 1-0 defeat to Burnley was followed by a catastrophic 3-1 loss to Southampton. Zero points taken from two home games against sides they should be doing much better against has left the Hertfordshire club teetering precariously on the precipice of the relegation zone. 

Bookies are giving Watford a 30% chance of the drop (23/10), but with games against Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal among their list of teams still left to play, those odds could be cut drastically in the upcoming weeks. 

They’ll need to start rectifying their performances and hope that they can take something from the games against Norwich, Newcastle and West Ham if they’re to stand any chance of avoiding demotion to the second-tier. 

Aston Villa - 18th, 27 points

I can’t help but be extremely fearful for 18th-placed Aston Villa. Dean Smith’s side have found it difficult this season, winning just seven of their 32 league games and since the restart they have only managed to take one point from a possible nine (a 1-1 draw with Newcastle 10 days ago). 

Aside from Jack Grealish, the Villans have lacked quality this time out, and their recent 1-0 defeat to Wolves at home last weekend was a disappointing result which could prove costly in a few weeks time.

With a game against recently-crowned champions Liverpool up next, before the visit of an in-form Manchester United, it’s difficult to see where the points are going to come from.

Villa’s four games after the United clash are against Crystal Palace, Everton, Arsenal and West Ham - three of those sides are now finding form and Palace are never an easy side to break down - so they’ve really got a task on their hands to pick up points, especially if they keep playing the way they have been. 

The bookies are giving Villa a resounding 78% chance of relegation, which would be disastrous as it would also most likely solidify the departure of star player Jack Grealish this summer.

Bournemouth - 19th, 27 points

Bournemouth lie second-from-bottom in the Premier League heading into gameweek 33 and their performances of late have been far from impressive.

The Cherries are still only a point away from survival thanks to results from the teams around them working in their favour, though if they do not start tightening things up at the back and scoring at the other end, the end of their five-year stint in the top-flight could well be over. 

Eddie Howe’s side have lost all three of their games since returning to action last month, with only one of their opponents inside the current top-six.

It is an extremely poor return for a side who have a lot of very capable players, and with arguably the most difficult run-in approaching (Man United, Tottenham, Leicester, Man City, Southampton and Everton), I think the south coast side could be heading for a one-way ticket to the Championship.

The bookies are certainly in agreement, pricing them as 1/10 shots for the drop (an implied chance of 82%), and if this were to be the end for Bournemouth in the top-flight, I would imagine that it would also spell the end for their manager at the club, too.

Norwich - 20th, 21 points

Rock-bottom Norwich look to be as good as finished. With just 21 points to show for their efforts this term, Daniel Farke’s men - who were promoted from the Championship just last season - are in freefall having lost their previous four matches (scoring just once in the process).

Alongside Villa, the Canaries have the joint-worst defensive record in the Prem this season having conceded 60 goals, and with eight points to make up on 17th-placed Watford due to their inferior goal difference, and only six games left (two of which are against Chelsea and Man City), it is difficult to envisage anything but relegation for the East Anglian side at the end of the month.

The bookies are certainly in agreement, pricing Norwich up at 1/200 for the drop, an implied chance of 99.5%.

Premier League relegation odds

Norwich
WIN PROB: 81%
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2/9
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1/5
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1/5
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1/5
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1/5
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1/5
Watford
WIN PROB: 65%
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1/2
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1/2
Aston Villa
WIN PROB: 5%
1
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£20 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
REVEAL OFFER
Brighton
WIN PROB: 3%
1
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REVEAL OFFER
Odds correct as of 2021-10-18 08:29 Odds subject to change.
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