Watford vs. Leeds Predictions: Plenty of goals & cards expected at Vicarage Road

Watford welcome Leeds to Vicarage Road at 3pm on Saturday in what is a massive game for both clubs in the fight for top-flight survival. Our resident tipster @AnthonyEadson is here to provide us with his thoughts and selections ahead of this one. 

Heading into the weekend Watford find themselves 19th in the standings, three points behind Everton in 17th, while Leeds occupy 16th, six points ahead of Sean Dyche’s Burnley. It’s a pivotal weekend for several clubs in their bids to stay up and no more so than for Watford who must pick up a result here.

The last time that the Hornets won a home match was all the way back in November against Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United; it’s now eight straight losses on home soil. Roy Hodgson may choose to bring back Emmanuel Dennis into the starting XI here at the expense of Joao Pedro.

Leeds on the other hand have picked up seven points from their last three league matches with impressive wins over Wolves and Norwich as well as a point against Southampton. One massive boost for Leeds this weekend is the potential return to the starting line-up for Kalvin Phillips, despite more transfer-talk of a move away from Elland Road this summer. 

I feel this game has the potential to really spring into life given that it brings together two of the shakiest defences over the course of the season, coupled with the fact that these two sides have the worst disciplinary records in the division. 

On the betting-front, my first play is on Dan James and Cucho Hernandez both to have a shot on target in the match, which is available at Betfair or Paddy Power via the Bet Builder feature at 2/1. 

Here we have two in-form players when it comes to the shots markets with Dan James landing a shot on target in four of his last five outings. Looking back further, he has registered 12 in his last 13 starts. and with James starting as the main striker with Raphinha, Harrison and Rodrigo behind him, I’m happy to include him here in this double. There’s been plenty of intent in front of goal recently from the young Welshman with him hitting four or more shots in four matches since January.

Watford simply have to take something from this match and Roy Hodgson should want all three points if they are to drag Leeds back into this relegation dog-fight. Cucho Hernandez is the man I’m siding with to also have a shot on target in this game. 

The Colombian has started the last four matches for Watford against Arsenal, Southampton, Wolves and Liverpool. Despite the tricky opponents, Hernandez has recorded shot figures of 3,3,3,2 in that period and has been often the only threat his side have shown in front of goal, scoring three goals in his last four. 

When it comes to hitting the target, Hernandez has done so five times in his last four matches, including against Liverpool (1), and then Arsenal (2) where he got on the scoresheet. 2/1 looks a solid price here on both James and Hernandez hitting the target at least once, with other firms such as 365 going shorter at 7/5.

I always like to pick something out at a price where possible and with the importance of this game for both sides I have the feeling it could go a bit loco. I’ve therefore had some small change on Emmanuel Dennis and Raphinha to both score and be carded in the match at 154/1 with Paddy Power. 

With nine league goals to his name, Emmanuel Dennis is Watford’s top-scorer in the league. The Nigerian also has five assists, in what has been a productive campaign for the 24-year-old. Dennis also leads the way for Watford when it comes to card-collecting, having been shown seven yellows and a red in 2021/2022. 

Nobody in the Premier League has committed more fouls in the league this season than Emmanuel Dennis with 53 (1.89 per game), and he should slot back into the starting lineup for this game with Leeds. In two of the eight matches in which Dennis has been carded in 21/22 he has also scored, and he makes up half of this three-figure-priced double.

Another player who could be on the move this summer away from Leeds besides Kalvin Phillips is Raphinha. The Brazilian has been a shining light at times for Leeds this season in what has been a little bit of a disappointing campaign. 

In three league matches this season Raphinha has scored and picked up a card and I’ll be hoping that becomes four on Saturday. Again, the top scorer for his club with nine in the league, Raphinha averages the most shots per game for Leeds (2.6 per game) and is also on penalty duty.

The Brazilian has been shown six yellow cards in 27 starts this season as well as averaging 1.2 fouls per game. Raphinha may be without a goal in his last six, but with 13 shots in his last five matches, this looks the perfect opportunity to end his drought against a Watford side who have the worst defence in the division this season; conceding 34 goals in 14 matches at Vicarage Road. 

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