Watford vs. Burnley Predictions: Cards on the agenda at Vicarage Road

Six games take place in the Premier League on Saturday with Burnley traveling to Watford in one of four 3pm kick-offs. It’s a huge game down at the bottom end of the table and @AnthonyEadson has previewed the action and provided us with his best bets for the game. 

Heading into the weekend both Watford and Burnley each have just five games remaining of their 2021/2022 season. The Clarets find themselves in 17th, one place above the drop and two points above Everton, who have played one game fewer. 

Watford are nine points from safety and need to avoid defeat here at the very least to stand any chance of top-flight survival. The form-book does not read kindly for the Hornets with Roy Hodgson’s side suffering defeats in their last 10 matches at Vicarage Road, conceding at least two goals in the last six of those. 

Burnley on the other hand, have managed to pick up points at a vital point of the season and come into this game off the back of seven points from their last three matches. Wins over Southampton and Wolves as well as a point against West Ham, all under the supervision of caretaker manager Mike Jackson, will give Burnley plenty of belief that they can pick up all three points and further strengthen their survival chances. 

Both teams have plenty of injury concerns here with the hosts missing Cucho Hernandez and Nicolas Nkoulou, while Kiko Ferminia and Juraj Kucka are both doubts. For Burnley, Ashley Westwood, Jay Rodriquez, Ben Mee and Erik Peters are all sidelined, with Maxwel Cornet to be assessed prior to the match. 

Time is rapidly running out for Watford to try and salvage their Premier League status for another season and realistically a win is needed here for them to stand any chance. The first selection I’ve opted for in this game is for both teams to be shown over 1.5 cards in the match which is available at 5/4 with BetVictor.

The Clarets have collected at least two cards in all three of their games under Mike Jackson, and have shown real fight as well a slightly more expansive brand of football than what the Turf Moor faithful were used to under Sean Dyche. 

Both teams should be really going for it here with the importance of three points paramount to their Premier League status. Another boost here is that we have good referee when it comes to dishing out the cards.

Craig Pawson will be the man in charge and of the 18 referees to have taken control of 10+ Premier League games this season, he ranks 3rd for the most yellow cards, having brandished 4.39 per game on average. Pawson has also given both sides Over 1.5 cards in six of his last 10 top-flight appearances.

I’ll also be having a half point play on Burnley’s Charlie Taylor to be carded in this match. The left-back may not have the strongest historical data in relation to card-collecting, with just three yellows in 25 league starts this season, but I do think there’s certainly a case to be made for him being overpriced at 11/2.

As mentioned above in my first selection, the significance of this match for both sides is massive and I expect bodies to be put on the line. However, a large proportion of my thinking here is that Ismaila Sarr will be the direct opponent of Charlie Taylor.

At the start of the season five out of the first 10 left-backs or left wing-backs to face the Senegalese attacker were shown a yellow card. He was the most fouled player in the Championship last season and has drawn an average of 2.2 fouls per game, ranking him joint-fifth in the division for this metric. 

When considering the speed and trickery of Sarr, along with the match importance and a referee who is generous with the cards, I feel like we have a decent case here. Unibet go 11/2 on the Taylor booking, while others take a much more conservative view with bet365 offering 5/2, BetVictor 13/5 and Boyles 11/4. 

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