Watford vs. Brentford Predictions: Side with Eriksen in the shots market

Watford take on Brentford at Vicarage Road on Saturday in what feels like a must win game for the Hornets if they are to stand any chance of remaining in the Premier League this season. The home side are currently five points from safety heading into the weekend, although they have played a game more than their opponents. Our tipster @AnthonyEadson has provided us with his thoughts around the game and two bets that he really likes the look of. 

Things aren’t looking great for Watford with bet365 offering just 1/25 that they will be playing Championship football next season. Before the International break Watford had managed a 2-1 win over Southampton, but since then they have endured back-to-back defeats, failing to get on the scoresheet in 2-0 and 3-0 losses to Liverpool and Leeds. 

Roy Hodgson will also be without Cucho Hernandez for this key game after the Colombian picked up a hamstring injury against Leeds. Hernandez had scored three of Watford’s last four goals in the league and they will also be without Kwadwo Baah and Nicolas Nkoulou for Saturday. 

Brentford on the other hand are a team in great form in recent weeks. The Bees have pulled away from the drop zone thanks to four consecutive victories, and now find themselves just a point behind Crystal Palace in 10th. Josh Dasilva and Frank Onyeka are confirmed absentees for the visitors. 

I was on duty for BettingOdds.com in Brentford’s match last weekend and successfully put up a 2.5pt winner with Christian Eriksen to have over 1.5 shots at 11/10 against West Ham. I’m taking the same approach again this weekend at the same price with bet365 against a Watford side that have lost their last nine home matches in the Premier League. 

Brentford have won all four games that Christian Eriksen has started since moving to the club in January and he’s been a real positive for Thomas Frank’s side, putting in some classy displays. In all of Eriksen’s last three starts, he has cleared this line of Over 1.5 shots 

The Danish midfielder has also scored in three of his last four matches for club and country and I feel he is growing in confidence game by game. Watford have conceded 13 goals in their last five matches and average the lowest shots per game figure of any side in the division this season (11.2).

Another price-play I’m touting in this match is Bryan Mbeumo to have Over 0.5 shots on target, which I’m astonished to see priced at 31/20 with Unibet. The 22-year-old has four assists and a goal in his last three matches for Brentford and has been showing some real intent in front of goal, with shot figures in his last five matches of 7,1,2,3 and 4.

When it comes to hitting the target The Frenchman has landed at least one in four of his last five matches for Brentford. Take away games against the ‘big-six’ this season and Mbeumo has recorded one or more shots on target in 11 of his 20 appearances (55%). With odds of 31/20 implying just a 39% chance of this selection landing I’m happy to put out two points on what looks a nice bit of value with Unibet. Good luck to anyone following the selections this weekend.

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