Wales v Denmark Tips: Tight affair predicted for last sixteen clash
The knockout stages commence in Amsterdam as Wales lock horns with Denmark at the Johan Cruijff ArenA on Saturday evening.
The momentum will be with the Danes as they come into this fixture on the back of a 4-1 victory over Russia, whilst a rotated, ten man Wales side lost 1-0 to Italy. The bookmakers clearly fancy this to pay dividends as they have priced the Red and White as odds on favourites at around 17/20. However, I am not so bullish about the Danes. It is worth noting that it took a Mikkel Damsgaard wonder strike to break the deadlock vs Russia, then a dreadful mistake presented Yussuf Poulsen with the chance to double their lead. They were then pegged back via a Dzyuba penalty and it took another worldie, this one courtesy of Christensen to put daylight between the sides once more. The point is Denmark may struggle to break Robert Page’s stubborn side down.
Wales only absentee for this fixture is the suspended Ethan Ampadu, however, it was unlikely he would have featured from the off here. We will likely see Page opt for the same side that beat Turkey 2-0. As for Denmark, Kasper Hjulmand is expected to persist with a back three and name an unchanged side here.
Wales v Denmark Tips
Page went with the false nine against Italy, I assume the thinking behind it was to get Ramsey in as an extra body in the low block and look for Dan James or Bale on the counter. Without the big Kieffer Moore to play off and get the Dragons up the pitch, their counter attacking threat was nullified as their pacey players were isolated. However, it looks like Cardiff’s talisman will feature from the off here and that attacking trio could pose the possession heavy Danes some real issues.
Backing Wales with a +0.75 goal head start means this bet is a winner if they win or draw, we get half of our stake back if they lose by one and the bet loses if they lose by more than one goal. Therefore, so far this summer, the bet has landed for Wales twice, in their 1-1 draw with the Swiss and in their 2-0 victory over Turkey, and we would have got half our stake back in their 1-0 defeat to Italy. Prior to the Euro’s, this bet has landed in 92% of Wales’ last 12 fixtures.
This game is a tough nut to crack, however, I cannot go near the Danes at the prices available which is why I have taken Wales with a 0.75 goal head start.
Dan James has played the entirety of the tournament on the left wing and this appears to be a bit of a master stroke from Page. Whilst it does not make two much difference as to what side he bolts down, having him on the left allows Bale to cut in and effect games more with his outrages passing.
If you have watched any of Wales fixtures, it will come as no surprise to learn that James is his nation's most fouled player, drawing 2.3 per game. Every right back he has faced has conceded two fouls vs him.
In Wales opening game vs Switzerland, their rightwing back, Kevin Mbabu, and their centre back, Fabian Schar, were booked for a cynical fouls on James. Denmark are expected to play the same system which should set us up for another game of cat and mouse between James and Daniel Wass. As was the case with Mbabu, I expect Wass will be high and wide in possession, which will leave him on the wrong side in transition.
Domestically, Wass picked up eight bookings in La Liga this season and has already picked up one in the Euro’s. However, this bet is not faultless. Wass is yet to make it past the 70th minute mark and is one card away from suspension. It is also worth noting that the referee for this fixture, Daniel Siebert, is not the most card happy. All things considered, I think the price for Wass to be carded is too long but I would recommend a small stake.
Kasper Hjulmand went with a back four for his side's first game vs Finland. He then switched to a 3-5-3 to match up with Belgium, a system that his squad seemed much better suited to. One player that this system especially seems to suit is Joakim Maehle. As has been a feature of this tournament, this is another right back playing at left back.
Against Russia, Maehle was outstanding. He had the most; touches (84), attempted take ons (9) and successful take ons (4) of any player on the pitch. He also boasted 75% pass accuracy, attempted five long passes, had two shots and scored the Danes fourth goal.
He was desperately unlucky to be pipped by Andreas Christensen to Man of the Match, however, at 25/1 with Bet365 I think it will provide some interest in what promises to be a nip and tuck encounter.
Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.