Villarreal vs. Liverpool Predictions: Two bets for the Champions League semi-final second leg

Liverpool head to the Estadio de la Cerámica tonight for the second leg of their Champions League semi-final with a 2-0 league to protect.

Jürgen Klopp rotated his squad to great effect on Saturday during the Reds trip to St James’ Park in the early Premier League kick off. Mo Salah, Thiago, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Fabinho were all rested in the 1-0 win over Newcastle but will return to the starting XI here. Question marks remain over if Klopp will opt for Naby Kieta- the goal scorer at the weekend- or Jordan Henderson in midfield. 

Unai Emery also shuffled his deck at the weekend, though he did not have the same success. Only Samuel Chukwueze, Daniel Parejo and Pau Torres started both of the games at Anfield and the 2-1 defeat at Deportivo Alaves on Saturday. 

The Yellow Submarine will be boosted by the return of Gerard Moreno from injury, though Emery understands the magnitude of tonight’s task saying that his side must play “the perfect game” if they are going to make it to the final.

Given the dynamic of the tie, I think Villarreal’s price of 39/10 to win the game is too large. If they are going to stand any chance of making the final they obviously cannot afford to lose tonight which is why taking them with a goal headstart on the asian handicap at 7/10 appeals here. This way there is the added security of getting our stake back if they lose by one goal. 

I think the price for the hosts to win in the 1x2 is a little disrespectful as it gives them a 20% chance of victory. Emery’s side have already bested Juventus and Bayern Munich in this competition winning 0-3 at the Allianz Stadium. 

Excluding the defeat at Anfield, this bet would have clicked in each of their five previous Champions League games. It is also worth pointing out that at 7/10, Liverpool's expected chance of victory is 59% but the Reds have only won 48% of their games when priced accordingly.

The occasion will likely yield a few cards. Last season's semi-final second leg between Man City and PSG saw six yellows and one red card while Chelsea’s 2-0 victory over Real Madrid also saw seven cards. 

Danny Makkelie has the whistle for this one and the Dutchman has been pretty obliging when it comes to card brandishing in the UCL this campaign averaging five per game. The last European game he oversaw- Real Madrid vs PSG- saw eight bookings. Therefore, I think player cards are worth a plump and I do not think there is any need to over complicate it. 

Etienne Capoue is the hosts' serial card offender topping his sides charts for ill-discipline with eight cards domestically, averaging 1.6 fouls per game. You can combine him with Fabinho at 11/1 with WIlliam Hill. The Brazilian has picked up the most bookings of any Reds player in the league this season and has accumulated 14 in this competition over the course of his career. 

Best of luck if you are backing one of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.