Tottenham v Leeds Tips: Three bets on what could be a tough afternoon for Tottenham defence
Sunday's early kick off in the Premier League promises to see a clash in styles as Tottenham welcome Leeds to White Hart Lane (KO. 12.30 BT Sport)
It's all been a bit meh for Spurs since the beginning of December when they had appeared to come through a tough run of fixtures atop the Premier League and all looked rosy with talk of a possible title challenge even being muted.
Fast forward a month and Jose Mourinho's side have tasted defeat to Liverpool and Leicester in the league plus a lack lustre defensive display at Wolves last time out where their playing style was widely criticised.
There's plenty of discourse amongst the Spurs faithful (when isn't there?). Mourinho the man and the manager will always divide opinion but the stats as well as the eye test don't look good for his side when it comes to their attacking intent.
In the period since the November international break, Tottenham rank 19th in the Premier League for expected goals, with a measly xG of 4.42 per game, only West Brom worst in the division.
Compare that with Saturday's visitors and Marcelo Bielsa's team are everyone's (bar Manchester United fans) favourite team. Energetic, attacking, relentless they may have been exposed on the odd occasion this season but their thrashing of West Brom in the week had the pundits salivating and they rank 2nd in the xG charts, averaging just under 14.00 per game. Quite the contrast to Sunday's hosts.
As a Tottenham fan I've seen enough this season to know that they're in for a game on Sunday and the 16/5 about Leeds' chances looks genuine value, as does the even money Leeds double chance.
I wouldn't touch Spurs at odds on (4/5) here and as a supporter the best I can hope for is a back against the walls hit them on the break and hope Kane or Son score kind of match.
Leeds have dominated possession in their matches this season, averaging 57.6% puts them 3rd in the league averages whilst Spurs are averaging under 50%.
The Yorkshire club are also firing in the shots, averaging 15.1 shots per game, over 4 shots more than Sunday's rivals who are only averaging 10.7 pG. Add to that their tenaciousness in getting the ball back, averaging 19.4 tackles per game, that's the second highest in the division and it all points towards a long afternoon for the hosts.
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Ndombele and Raphina 1+ shots on target
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5/2 | |
- Ndombele is averaging over a shot a game since moving to a more forward role in recent weeks whilst Raphina is averaging over a shot on target in his last six games for Leeds.
First up I like the look of a couple of players to double up in the shots market.
I like Tanguy Ndombele who, after a shaky start at the club is now starting to show his potential. It looked like the Frenchman could be surplus to requirements under Mourinho but credit to both him and the manager for getting him on the field and looking the liveliest of Tottenham's players in recent weeks.
Playing further forward in the most recent of formations deplyoyed by Mourinho, Ndombele's averaging 1.09 shots in his last four games, an increase of 0.5 on his season average and he even bagged a goal at Wolves last week.
It would be good if they could get 90 mins out of him, but with Lo Celso sidelined and Lamela coming back from injury and having had a week off due to Wednesday's Fulham postponement I think he's a value play at 4/5.
I'm doubling him up with Raphina who has been electric for Leeds and like Ndombele, enjoying a real surge in productivity in recent weeks.
The Leeds winger is averaging over three shots a game in the last six weeks and 1.21 shots on target per game during that period. His season average for shots is 2.5pG and although opposition has to be factored in, the Brazilian is obviously growing into his role and proving it's not just Patrick Bamford who represents a shot threat for Leeds.
At 8/11 for a shot or more on target, the double with Ndombele is a 5/2 chance.
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Hojbjerg and Struijk to be booked
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26/1 |
- Both players are averaging over two fouls a game in recent weeks in what could be a combative match up.
I've also picked out a bookings double which pays out at a juicy 26/1.
First up is Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg for Tottenham who is generously priced in my opinion at 10/3 with Paddy Power.
The Dane is a real workhorse in the Spurs midfield and already picked up two bookings this season and averaging over two fouls per game in the last six outings. In his last season at Southampton he amassed a card every 0.24 appearances and whilst Tottenham have the second lowest cards shown this season, they also rank second for fouls given against so they're collectively treading a fine line.
The ref for Sunday's game is David Coote who is no stranger to waving his card, averaging 3.88 yellows per game, he ranks third amongst his peers and top for the amount of fouls given per tackle at a very high 0.94.
Doubling up with Hojbjerg is Leeds young centre-back Pascal Struijk, who, since deputising at half time for skipper Liam Cooper in Leeds' 6-2 defeat at Old Trafford has already picked up a booking and averaging two fouls per game. Matching up against either the wily Harry Kane pumped up on the adrenalin of his baby boy being born on New Year's Eve, or the speedster Son on the counter attack I think his price at 10/3 also looks generous, with the double a really attractive 26/1 chance.
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Harrison and Dier 1+ shots on target & over 5.5 Leeds corners
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49/1 |
- Harrison is averaging nearly two shots per game in his last six outings for Leeds.
- Dier gets the opportunity from set pieces with both his feet and head.
- Leeds are averaging over six corners per game this season.
For my final selection, I've gone for a big priced same game multi (SGM) with Paddy Power.
I really like the look of Jack Harrison in the 1+ shots on target market at 12/5. The attacking midfielder seems to go under the radar of the bookies but has been a continuous goal threat for Leeds this season, averaging 1.4 shots per game and netting three times.
His goal against West Brom was his second in his last three matches where he's upped his shots tally per game to 1.96 in his last six matches and at that price I make him terrific value for any SGM.
Second up I'm adding a bit more of a speculative selection in the shape of Eric Dier to get one or more shots on target.
The England defender has come on strong under Jose Mourinho and is a guaranteed starter. He's also the club's best header of the ball bar Harry Kane which makes him a threat at corners and crosses. Leeds have conceded nine goals from set pieces this season which is the most in the Premier League and whilst his best chance might come from a corner, Dier also has first/second dibs on free kicks with Harry Kane depending on how far out it is. He's averaging 0.83 shots per game in his last six starts, 0.33 have been on target and I make the 7/2 price here a touch of value.
Finally I like the look of Leeds to get over 5.5 corners at odds of 7/5.
Leeds are averaging over six corners a game this season and also rank second in the league for crosses in open play which I believe increase the chances of them resulting in a corner through blocks and saves. Add into that we already know they're pumping in an average of over 15 shots per game I see Hugo Lloris and his defence having a busy time of it.
The SGM pays 49/1.
If you're following, good luck and please remember to gamble responsibly. Happy New Year!!
