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Tottenham v Everton Tips: Calvert-Lewin to pick up eighth booking of the season

Harry Kane features in our main bet for the evening at 6/5
Harry Kane features in our main bet for the evening at 6/5

Everton travel to London this evening to take on Spurs in a game where Jose Mourinho will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing 3-1 defeat at Sheffield United last week. The game kicks off at 20:00pm and can be viewed on SkySports Premier League. A win for Everton would be their first over Tottenham since December 2012, a run which has seen seven draws and seven defeats for the Toffees. 

It’s been a mixed bag for Spurs since the restart with a point against Manchester United, a win away at West Ham before defeat to Sheffield United. Defensive fragilities where shown at Bramall lane and Mourinho will be demanding more for tonight’s clash. It’s looking like no Champions League place for Spurs next season after being 1/2 in the Premier league top 4 betting at the start of the season with bet365, they are now 250/1 with betfair and are  realistically out of contention. 

Since Ancelotti took over, Everton have looked a much better side, organisation and tightening up at the back have been key and since the restart they have managed a point in the Merseyside Derby before wins against Norwich and Leicester. Without being overly inspiring Everton have been quietly going about their business and it will be interesting how they act in this summer's belated transfer window. 

Having a look at the match odds, Betfred are currently a top price 21/20 for a Spurs win giving the hosts an implied probability of 49%. The draw is available at 5/2 with most firms while a win for the Toffee’s which would see them move above Tottenham can be backed at 3/1 with PaddyPower.

It would be no surprise to see Jose make changes here after the defeat to the Blades, however Dele Alli is a doubt for the game after a hamstring injury he picked up in training. Carlo Ancelotti has said that he is confident Brazilian Richarlison will be fit for the match but both Fabian Delph and Theo Walcott will be sidelined with injuries. 

Tottenham v Everton Tip #1
20:00
Kane and Richarlison 1+ shot on target
WIN PROB: 45.45%
1.2/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Kane had 3 shots on target in his last home game v West Ham

Kane averages 3.3 shots per game

Richarlison has the most shots per game of any Everton player

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-06 13:10 Odds subject to change.

We managed a few winners last week with my football tips and with the season rapidly coming close to the end I’ll be hoping to snaffle out a few more ‘W’s’. I’ve picked out three bets I like the look of for tonight’s game starting with a 6/5 double of both Harry Kane and Richarlison to have one or more shots on target.

It’s easy to think that despite injury, Harry Kane has had a relatively quiet season, but he’s actually scored 19 goals in 28 games across the Premier League and Champions League this campaign. If it wasn’t for that big injury I do feel he would be right there in the betting for the  Premier League top scorer award as he’s now 50/1 with 13 league goals after being the hot 5/2 favourite before a ball was kicked in early August 2019.

Kane always seems to end the season on high and he’s managed a goal in both of his most recent games. Averaging 3.3 shots per match at home in the league, I’ll be hoping he can land one on target against Everton this evening.

I’m doubling this up with Everton’s Richarlison to have a shot on target. The Brazilian, still just twenty-three, has 11 league goals in this season and opened the scoring against Leicester at Goodison Park last week. He averages more shots than any other Everton player with 2.7 per 90 minutes. 

Having a look at the various prices from different bookmakers, I can see that Coral have this one at just 3/4 for both players to have a shot on target. Betfair were originally priced at even money but have given us a generous little boost up to 6/5, a price I’ll be having a dabble on.

Tottenham v Everton Tip #2
20:00
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be carded
WIN PROB: 18.18%
4.5/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Only Andre Gomes commits more fouls per game than DLC

He has been booked 7 times this season, no Everton player has more

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-06 13:15 Odds subject to change.

For my second selection I’m having Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be carded at 9/2 with PaddyPower. Yes yes, I know he’s a striker but no other player in the entire Everton squad has been cautioned more times than DLC this season.

Delving into the data we can see that only Andre Gomes is averaging more fouls per game than Calvert-Lewin who is committing 1.6 per game. This is high for a striker and I’ve been watching his price shorten in the markets over the course of the season due to the seven bookings he’s picked up.

SkyBet have this one at 10/3 with William Hill and Betway going 7/2. At 9/2 with PaddyPower I’m hoping Calvert-Lewin can get caught up in a bit of a battle with Eric Dier or Davinson Sanchez and receive his eighth yellow of the season this evening. 

Tottenham v Everton Tip #3
20:00
Son & Calvert-Lewin 1+ shot on target, Gomes and Sissoko to be carded
WIN PROB: 2.44%
40/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Son averages more shots on target per game than Harry Kane with 1.3

Calvert-Lewin has 13 league goals this season and averages 1.1 shots on target per game

Andre Gomes has been booked five times in 12 league starts

Sissoko commits the most fouls per game of any Spurs player

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-06 13:15 Odds subject to change.

Finally I’ve picked out a longshot which consists of Calvert-Lewin and Son to have a shot on target, combined with both Andre Gomes and Moussa Sissoko to be booked at 40/1 with PaddyPower.

It’s been an eventful season for Son Heung-Min, having to lead the line in the absence of Harry Kane and jetting back to South Korea to complete military service. He’s managed 9 goals and 9 assists this season and having a look at his numbers he actually averages more shots on target per game than Harry Kane with 1.3 in opposed to Kane’s 1.2. I’m adding Son to have one or more shots on target into this big price punt for tonight. 

I had been critical over Dominic Calvert-Lewin last season but this time round he’s proved everyone wrong and has come on leaps and bounds under the guidance of Duncan Fergurson and Carlo Ancelotti. An excellent return of 13 goals in the league and once again it’s similar to with Son for how DLC averages more shots on target per game than his fellow striker Richarlison, with Calvert Lewin averaging 1.1 SOT’s per 90 minutes. 

Onto the bookings and first up it’s worth mentioning that Graham Scott is the man in the middle tonight and he actually has the best red cards per game ratio of any Premier League referee this season after dishing out 5 reds in just sixteen games.

For Spurs I’m going with Moussa Sissoko to find his way into the book. The long legged spider like Sissoko has started all three games for Mourinho since the restart and commits more fouls per game than anyone at Spurs. Priced as 4/1 as a single this looks a good bit of value, with him already picking up six bookings this season, I’m adding Moussa into this Same Game Multi.

The final part of this four-pronged punt is Everton’s Andre Gomes to also find his way into Graham Scott’s notebook. Gomes has been cautioned five times in just 12 league starts this season, he commits more per 90 than any other Everton player and adding him in rounds this one off at 40/1.

So that’s one or more shots for Son & Calvert Lewin, with Gomes and Sissoko both to be carded. Considering this is just 22/1 with Coral, I’ll be having a small play on the 40/1 from PaddyPower. As always enjoy the game, only bet what you can afford and please always gamble responsibly.

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