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Tottenham v Everton Tips: The names target, shot on target. Back James Rodriguez to fire on debut

Tottenham v Everton Tips: James Rodriguez features in our main selection of the day at 11/10
Tottenham v Everton Tips: James Rodriguez features in our main selection of the day at 11/10

Both Tottenham and Everton endured rather lacklustre ends to the 2019/20 season, and the two teams face off in north London on Sunday to kick off their 2020/21 campaign. Both sides will be looking for significant improvements this term. Spurs dropped out of the top-four, eventually finishing sixth. Carlo Ancelotti has now had time to bring in several significant signings for the Toffees, and the board and fans will be demanding better than the 12th place finish they achieved last season.

Fabian Delph, Mason Holgate, and Cenk Tosun will all miss the trip to the capital due to injury, although Andre Gomes is now fit and available for selection for Everton. Both Matt Doherty and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg are expected to be given their debuts after arriving at Tottenham this summer. Harry Winks and Giovanni Lo Celso are a doubt for Jose Mourinho’s side.

Having a look at the bookmaker odds for the win and Tottenham are the 10/11 favourites at just a shade of odds-on with most firms. An opening weekend win for Everton is priced at 10/3 and given an implied percentage of 23%. The two sides met here back in July in a game where I managed to pick out a 40/1 winner, which can be viewed on our recent winners page. I’ve delved into the betting markets for this one and have picked out three selections that I think should go well here.

James Rodiguez 1+ shot on target - 2pts @ 11/10 Paddy Power 

Dominic Calvert Lewin to be carded - 1pts @ 9/2 Betfair

Kane & Richarlison 1+ shot on target, Davies & Digne to be carded - 0.5pts @ 50/1 Paddy Power

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Kicking off proceedings on the betting front is James Rodriguez to have one or more shots on target at 11/10 with Paddy Power. One of my favourite angles in this market is when new players arrive into the Premier League. We saw this last year with Bruno Fernandes who was priced at 8/1 in his first Premier League game to have two or more shots on target. That selection landed that day and now often goes off at around 6/5. Picking out new players to the league who the bookmakers are maybe underestimating based on their stats from other leagues is often a profitable angle to look at. 

In fact when looking into James Rodriguez’s numbers I noticed that from his five seasons in Madrid, his highest average shots per game came when being managed by Carlo Ancelotti in the 2014/15 season where he scored 13 league goals in just 29 appearances. He averaged just under two shots a game that season and I think he will be encouraged to get forward and help the front two in terms of goal output. At 11/10 for one or more shots on target, and 5/1 for two or more, I think Rodriguez could set the ground running for the shots train on Sunday afternoon.

Next up I’m backing Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be carded at 9/2 with Betfair. The Englishman’s lessons from Big Duncan Ferguson have clearly been paying dividends as he recorded a tally of 13 league goals and nine yellow cards in the most recent campaign. Only seven players in the entire Premier League picked up more bookings than Calvert-Lewin in the 19/20 season and he’s one who’s not afraid to throw in an arm or put himself about. Betfair have boosted his price for a card on Sunday to a rather generous looking 9/2 which implies an 18% chance of happening. SkyBet has the same selection at almost half the price at 12/5 which gives plenty of appeal to the 9/2 offering from Betfair.

As always, I like to pick something out at a bit of a big price, and for this encounter and I’ve opted for Harry Kane and Richarlison to have one or more shots on target, with both Ben Davies and Lucas Digne to be carded at 50/1 with Paddy Power.

Harry Kane missed a large portion of last season due to injury, and it has to be said he did not look the sharpest for England in their recent Nations League games. The dynamic forward still averaged 1.3 shots on target per game and scored 18 goals in a campaign that was cut short and he’s the first name on the team sheet for Spurs in my opinion, as well as the first name in this 50/1 Same Game Multi.

Brazilian Richarlison looks a very fair price for a shot on target at 4/6 with both Betfair and Paddy Power. The 23-year-old registered 32 shots on target last term, in a season which saw him play upfront in a 4-4-2 with DLC in spells. I still think he’s maturing as a player and has a lot to learn in terms of Premier League temperament but at the prices here Richarlison is the player to have a shot on target who goes into this bet.

Ben Davies was another of the Tottenham comrades who had a turbulent season through injury. The Welshman started only 16 league games but picked up an impressive six yellow cards in that time. That’s a ratio of better than 1 in 3 for picking up bookings and with the problematic Richarlison running at him I think we should see a good battle between Davies and the former.

Lucas Digne is one of the best left-backs in the league and his delivery and attacking attributes are a real strength for Everton. This, though, can be detrimental to his defensive duties at times and I fancy him to pick up a card against the pace of Lucas Moura on Sunday. The Frenchman picked up six league bookings last season and he looks better priced than some of his teammates at 4/1 to do so. 

Best of luck to all those who are following this season, let’s hope we can find a few winners. Please enjoy the game, and as always, gamble responsibly.

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