Tottenham v Dinamo Zagreb Tips: Back Mourinho's men to take a lead into the second leg

Spurs take on Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League in London on Thursday in a match that was originally scheduled to take place in Croatia. Our man @AnthonyEadson has three football tips for the game which Spurs had been drawn to play the second leg at home on the same day as Arsenal. However, article 21 of the Europa League regulations prohibit two teams from the same city playing on the same evening, meaning that one of them has to change.

Due to Arsenal’s qualification coming via winning the FA Cup, The Gunners subsequently have taken precedence over Spurs meaning Jose Moruinho’s side had to alter their schedule.

Despite being priced at 7/1 to claim the victory, Dinamo Zagreb should not be underestimated. They sit first in their domestic table and have won their last eight games on the bounce, keeping seven clean sheets in the process. Bruno Petkovic is the club’s top scorer in this competition this season with four goals in five starts.

Jose Mourinho will have Sunday’s North London derby at the back of his mind when choosing his team here and after last Sunday’s 4-1 win over Crystal Palace, where he stated: “I don’t forget the Europa League, I refuse to forget or just to say Thursday is not important, because for me it is important”

There’s no denying that Spurs will want to win this competition as it may be their best route into the Champions League, although Erik Lamela, Eric Dier, and Dele Alli could all be recalled to the starting lineup.

Spurs to win & under 3.5 goals - 2pts @ 5/4 Paddy Power
Bruno Petkovic to be carded - 1pt @ 9/2 bet365
Erik Lamela & Bruno Petkovic to be carded - 0.2pts @ 25/1 bet365

The first selection I’ve taken a lean towards is Tottenham to win the game and under 3.5 goals in the match. Spurs have won their last four in all competitions and have scored 13 goals whilst doing so. Jose Mourinho’s men have won all their home games in the Europa League this season and I don’t see that run coming to an end this week, as I expect him to go with a strong side.

Krasnodar were beaten both home and away by Dinamo Zagreb in the round of 32 and with seven clean sheets in their last eight I think the visitors will look to keep things tight to give themselves every chance in the return fixture next Thursday on home soil.

One deciding factor in this game could be Harry Kane. I think the England international will remain in attack for the hosts and with him scoring seven in his last ten league games he’s a man who’s on top of his game at the moment. Despite making a good go of it I think Spurs will have too much for Zagreb and will take a lead into the second leg. Tottenham to win and under 3.5 goals looks the play here at 5/4.

As mentioned above, Croatia forward Bruno Petkovic is Dinamo Zagreb’s top scorer in the Europa League but he’s also picked up the joint-most yellow cards for Zoran Mamic’s side this season in this format. He’s currently priced at 9/2 to pick up a card with bet365 which converts to an 18% implied chance.

Petkovic has picked up three yellow cards in just five appearances in this competition this term and has a further three to his name in the Croatian top division. The man in the middle on Thursday evening will be Dutch official Serdar Gozubuyuk. This referee has given out the most cautions in the Eredivisie this season and has shown 3.6 yellows per game, a higher figure than any other official in that league this term. In the one Europa League game that Gozubuyuk has taken control of this season, he gave out five yellows and I’m confident we should see a good few brandished in this first leg.

I’ve also had a small play on the 25/1 double with Bruno Petkovic and Erik Lamela to be carded. I’m expecting Gareth Bale to drop to the bench on Thursday after Jose Mourinho confirmed in his press conference on Wednesday that “We won’t play with the same team that beat Palace, but we will be equally as strong.”

Erik Lamela could come into the starting line-up in place of Bale for this fixture and looking at his Premier League stats this season, he’s been yellow carded in four of his five starts. Three of those cautions came in February on his last three starts in the league and if he is back in the starting XI on Thursday, the 25/1 double with Petkovic using bet365’s Bet Builder looks a fair price.

That’s 5/4, 9/2 and 25/1 picks for this Europa League last sixteen game which can be seen live on BT Sport ESPN at 8pm. Best of luck to anyone following the selections and please always gamble responsibly.