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Tottenham v Arsenal Tips: Cards expected during a fiery north London derby

Harry Kane has an unbelievable record against Arsenal
Harry Kane has an unbelievable record against Arsenal

Anton is celebrating four winners in four days with a raunchy weekend away at the Cotswolds so has left me with the task of picking three tips for the first ever North London Derby at the new Spurs stadium, and the first behind closed doors. For me, this is the most entertaining derby to watch in the Premier League and with the teams desperately squabbling over a European spot, I’m expecting another Same Game Multi-backers dream in the 4.30pm Sunday game on Sky. 

Dele Alli is ruled out with a hamstring injury and Eddie Nketiah’s red card appeal was unsuccessful so he’s suspended for three games. Despite Tottenham’s abject form, they claim slight favoritism given a 38% chance at 8/5 while Arsenal are 17/10, a 37% chance and the draw 12/5. Spurs’ recent shocking away results contradict better form at the Tottenham Stadium while Arsenal are unbeaten in five and looked much-improved.

I’m staying well away from trying to predict any sort of result in this one and excited to get stuck into some shots on target, cards and scoring filth which this fixture has served up in recent years in spectacular fashion. In their last three Premier League games there’s been 24 cards, an average of eight a game, 12 goals (an average of four per game) and 37 shots on target. 

These numbers will have the SGM punters salivating so for starters we’re going for the tried and trusted...

Tottenham v Arsenal Tip #1
Granit Xhaka to be carded
  • Xhaka is Arsenal's most-booked player this season with 8 yellows
  • Never shy of a challenge, especially against bitter rivals Tottenham
Odds correct as of 2020-07-10 15:40 Odds subject to change.

Going to keep this real simple, he’s had five bookings in his last six North London Derbies, 12 in all comps which is more than any Arsenal player this season. Xhaka, yellow cards and North London Derbies go together like fish, chips and ketchup. £10 on this returns £23.75, a nice bet to cover yourself for the game.

Tottenham v Arsenal Tip #2
Harry Kane to score & Harry Winks to be carded
  • Kane is Spurs' biggest attacking threat and has a terrific record against Arsenal
  • No player has been booked more than Harry Winks this season (8 yellows) 
Odds correct as of 2020-07-10 15:40 Odds subject to change.

I really like a ‘to score and to be carded double’ I feel if you pick out a good bit of value, you’ll get decent returns and perfect for a £5 punt so I’m going to use this bet for a Harry double on Sunday. If you think the Xhaka yellow card stats vs Arsenal are impressive, wait until you hear this… Harry Kane has scored 10 in 10 vs Arsenal and is one away from becoming the all-time scorer in the North London Derby at the tender age of 26.

I feel he’s been shafted by VAR in recent games after having a goal wrongly ruled out at Bramall Lane and being denied a stone-waller at Bournemouth, so will be hungry to bag against his favourite opponent. Here’s my favourite Kane NLD goal which made White Hart Lane erupt in it’s prime Poch era… 


I’m doubling this up with his namesake Harry Winks to weasel his way into the ref’s book on Sunday. No player has had more bookings than Winksey; he was booked in the last derby and is a London lad who knows what this game means.

Jose Mourinho has been incensed with the two VAR decisions mentioned above and described the man in charge at Stockley Park for both as ”you know who.” So when I found out the man in question is Micheal Oliver and he’s reffing Sunday’s game I was delighted. That’s been boosted from 7/1 to 9/1 which is only 5/1 with Bet365, a very generous price. 

Live in-play scores
Tottenham v Arsenal Tip #3
Aubameyang to score & Son 1+ SOT, Mustafi & Davies to be carded
  • Aubameyang is Arsenal's leading goalscorer this season with 20 league goals
  • Son trails fairly close behind with 33 and is always a huge threat in front of goal
  • Davies has four bookings to his name this season and will be up against Pepe
  • Mustafi can be extremely clumsy in the tackle and will be tasked with marking Kane here
Odds correct as of 2020-07-10 15:50 Odds subject to change.

It would be rude not to put up a big priced fancy for this one so we’re going for this four-pronged Same Game Multi that has served us well this week. Aubameyang has three Premier League goals in his last three vs Spurs and three in his last three league games overall.

With the Golden Boot in his sights, we couldn't not back him so he makes the base of our longshot at evens to score anytime. Mourinho rested Son on Thursday, so we fully expect him to start on Sunday and with six SOT in his last three vs Arsenal we’re backing him to test Martinez. 

Now for some beautiful bookings and first up we’re picking Mustafi who’s already been booked three times against Tottenham in his Arsenal career and will be up against the pace of Son, Moura and Bergwijn. To seal the deal we’re backing Ben Davies to be carded, the Welshmen is a bit of a dark horse when it comes to the booking stakes and is in yellow card hot form after picking up five cautions in his last 10 games. 

After selling Rose, he’s a nailed on starter and likely to play the full 90. That’s 33/1 on Paddy Power #WhatOddsPaddy Featured section which means you can back it and cash out if there’s any non-starters. Paddy’s are also doing Money Back if Spurs win on all losing bets for new customers, so if you’re not with PP yet, get involved via the link below...

It’s a big game and has previously seen a lot of incidents but that doesn't mean you should bet what you can’t afford. Enjoy the game and good luck with your bets. 

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