Tottenham vs. Brentford Betting Tips: Best bets for Saturday's early kick-off

Tottenham host Brentford this weekend as they look to bounce back from their defeat against Aston Villa. Our expert tipster Scott Thornton is back in the hot seat and provided us with two data-driven bets. 

Ryan Mason’s side were dealt a killer blow in their pursuit of Champions League football last weekend. The club are still no closer to appointing a permanent manager but they will want to qualify for the Europa League so the next boss has another chance of scooping up silverware; something that has been so elusive for Tottenham in recent years. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the club. The fans have grown tired of the ownership model and Harry Kane has just one year remaining on his current deal with the club.

Brentford have enjoyed a stellar second season in the Premier League. They are 9th and have an outside chance of qualifying for Europe next season. They are four points behind Spurs going into this weekend’s clash. However, the club have been rocked by the news that Ivan Toney will serve an eight month ban for betting offences. Toney is their top scorer in the league and will be suspended until January. This could have an impact on the Bees summer plans.

Lloris, Bentancur and Sessegnon are ruled out due to injury. Eric Dier is also a doubt. Jansson and Norgaard are the most notable absentees for the visitors barring Toney, who of course is serving that lengthy suspension.

Tottenham are averaging the third fewest throws in the Premier League this season. In their last 20 league matches they are averaging 15.6 throws per game. This has dropped to 13.5 throws per game since Ryan Mason became caretaker manager. The most throws they’ve had in a match since he assumed the role was 16 against Liverpool at Anfield.

In the last five matches where Tottenham have been similarly priced to win (1.78-1.88), they are averaging just 14.2 throws per game. 

 Spurs have had 19 or fewer throws in their last eight matches at home. Over this period they are averaging 12.88 throws. Brentford’s opponents in four of their last five Premier League matches have seen 19 throws or fewer. Chelsea were the only side to exceed this mark and they finished with 21. 

We are also going to back against goal kicks in this match. There were just eight goal kicks when these sides met earlier in the season. Tottenham matches are averaging 13.94 goal kicks per game this season; below the league average of 14.39.

There were 11 goal kicks in Spurs last match at home and their matches have seen an average of 12.5 goal kicks per game since Mason became the interim boss. Moreover, there were just nine goal kicks when Brentford played at this ground last season.

For our longer odds bets we are going to take the same angles as the main bet with lower lines. The recent numbers for Spurs in particular suggest that this more ambitious bet is achievable.

We are also going to add both teams to receive a card in the match. This angle has landed in all four of Ryan Mason’s matches in charge so far. His side are averaging 2.25 cards per game, while their opponents are averaging 3.25.

Both teams have received a card in Brentford’s last seven matches on the road. It also landed when these sides met earlier in the season