Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2024 Tips: Ballyburn to get Mullins off to a flyer
Posted: 14:50 Wednesday 14th February 2024
The Cheltenham Festival at Prestbury Park is growing ever nearer and the build up to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle is intensifying.
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Queen Mother Champion Chase Tips
Tuesday's opening race was won by Barry Connell's Marine Nationale in 2023, but seven-time Supreme-winning trainer Willie Mullins holds strong credentials this year.
Here's our in-depth look at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, which is set to get underway at 13:30 on the Tuesday afternoon.
Ballyburn to win
Willie Mullins seems to be unstoppable, with the master of Closutton landing all eight Grade 1s at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown this month.
Among those winners was Ballyburn, who put in a career-best display when landing the Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle over two miles by seven lengths, leaving a couple of really good horses trailing in his wake.
Although the six-year-old has an entry in the Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle, he showed enough gears on the day to warrant taking his chance in the Supreme, which is a typically much better race.
Ballyburn was turned over by Gordon Elliott's Firefox over two miles in December, but he subsequently won a two-and-a-half mile maiden. Obviously, they could go either way but if there's any cut in the ground they'll almost certainly opt for the Supreme and he would prove difficult to stop.
Firefox E/W
There are two horses of interest in the each-way markets and first we will start with Firefox, who got the better of Ballyburn when they met earlier in the season, and it didn't look like a fluke on the day either.
He was then upped to 2m4f in the Grade 1 Lawlor's Of Naas Novice Hurdle, where he disappointed in fourth behind Readin Tommy Wrong. There's no doubt he simply didn't stay on the day and it's no shock that the Supreme is his sole entry.
The drop back to 2m½f could be just what the doctor ordered, and Elliott sounded quite bullish about his chances in his recent stable tour. Ballyburn has without question improved since they last clashed, but Firefox looks like a solid place candidate.
Asian Master E/W
One other runner worth a mention is Asian Master, who seems to be the forgotten horse if the Willie Mullins yard.
The gelding is owned by the Costello family, horse dealers who in the past sold on six individual Cheltenham Gold Cup winners, including three-time winner Best Mate.
Asian Master was sent to Mullins after a couple of runs in bumpers, and he created a good impression when beating Jimmy Du Seuil in a 2m Thurles maiden hurdle in December.
Jimmy Du Seuil subsequently won a Clonmel maiden hurdle very comfortably, while the fourth, Farmers Lodge, has gone in since too to give the form of that race a nice boost.
Heavily supported over 2m at Navan when last seen, Asian Master battered Albert Bartlett entrant Better Days Ahead in January, and he's not to be dismissed in the Supreme.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Odds - Winner
Jasmin De Vaux
Win Probability: 8%
Redemption Day
Win Probability: 8%
Romeo Coolio
Win Probability: 6%
Jalon dOudairies
Win Probability: 6%
Jeroboam Machin
Win Probability: 6%
Salvator Mundi
Win Probability: 5%
Belloccio
Win Probability: 5%
Kainsbourg
Win Probability: 4%
William Munny
Win Probability: 4%
Each Way Terms
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3
1/5 -
3
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3
1/5 -
3
1/5 -
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3
1/5
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