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Spain v Germany Tips: Kroos to find the ref's notepad in Seville

Spain v Germany Tips: We're backing Toni Kroos to pick up a card in Seville
Spain v Germany Tips: We're backing Toni Kroos to pick up a card in Seville

On Tuesday night we’re being treated to a winner-takes-all match in the Nations League between two former world champions - Spain vs Germany. The two European footballing powerhouses are not at the peak of their powers after going through transitional periods, leaving the last generation’s successful sides behind to blood a new crop of potential world beaters. This has shown in both sides’ recent results with Spain failing to win in their last three and Germany, in slightly better form, winning three of their last seven. When these two met in September, a last-minute Jose Luis Gaya goal made it a 1-1 stalemate. 

Spain will be without Barcelona starlet Ansu Fati and stalwart Sergio Busquets through long and short-term injuries respectively, meanwhile the Germans will be without big names in Joshua Kimmich, Kai Havertz and Julian Draxler. 

To my surprise, Spain are the favourites for this one priced at 13/10 with bet365, while Germany are a generous 15/8, given a 35% chance of winning. For me the Germans are looking in a lot better shape, winning their last three and with a more established squad, they could be worth a bet either as a single or added to your midweek acca. 

However I’m going to attempt to find you a bit more value and have delved into the scorers, shots on target and card markets to find you three value selections to back and enjoy the game. The Group A4 match will be in Seville and can be watched on Sky Sports from 7.45pm UK time. 


Nations League Winner Odds
Leroy Sane to score anytime
Odds correct as of 2020-11-16 17:00 Odds subject to change.

Leroy Sane has managed to recover from a big injury and settle well in Germany after his £41m move from Man City. The electric winger has been in fine form this season despite not completing a full 90 minutes yet. He’s been involved in 7 goals in 423 minutes of football, a goal involvement every 60 minutes. 

Sane has scored in his last three matches for club and country and when looking at the anytime scorer market he looks the value pick with Betfair at 10/3, a bigger price than Morata, Werner or Gnabry.  

Timo Werner to score & Sergio Reguilon to be carded
Odds correct as of 2020-11-16 17:00 Odds subject to change.

Moving to my go-to type of bet, the ‘to score and be carded’ double and I’m backing Timo Werner and Sergio Reguilon to give me two green ticks for this one. Starting with Werner, the red-hot Chelsea striker, after a slow start he has gone into fifth gear after scoring seven goals in his last five games for club and country, currently the most in-form player in the Premier League. 

After a great season-long loan at Sevilla, Sergio Reguilon has continued his fine year by making the move to Tottenham and cementing himself as Spain’s left-back. The Spainards’ charming smile is not to be confused with a nasty streak which he has in the locker. He was booked nine times last season, has two yellows in his last four and my main angle for this one is the pace he’ll be coming up against in a Germany frontline which consists of Werner, Gnabry and Sane. He’s a modern-day attacking full-back, and despite his pace is often found running towards his own goal making tactical or rash fouls. At a backable 7/2 he’s getting doubled up with a Werner goal to create a tasty 14/1 double. 

I was originally looking at Hector Bellerin for this one but am unsure whether he makes the starting 11, but if you fancy the 17/1 double you can get it here. 

Ferran Torres & Leon Goretzka to both 1+ SoT; Sergio Ramos & Toni Kroos both to be booked
Odds correct as of 2020-11-16 17:05 Odds subject to change.

Who fancies a long shot to spice up the international break? I know I need to to get into these games so I’ve conjured up a 125/1 punt for your pleasure and hopefully financial reward. 

Starting with two shots on target selections from two emerging talents from each side, first Spain and Manchester City’s Ferran Torres who has impressed and has had 10 shots on target in 13 games for club and country this season and looks great value at 10/11. 

The second selection is also 10/11 to have a shot on target and a player I love to back in the SoT market: Germany midfielder Leon Goretzka. He’s already scored five this season and has added shots and goals to his game, arriving into the box late like a hench Frank Lampard. 

Now to the cards and to two team-mates who I think will get stuck in to fight for their country’s chance to win the Nations League. Starting with Span captain Sergio Ramos, who will be desperate to make amends after Saturday’s horror show where he missed two penalties against Switzerland. The shrewd operator will have to stop any pacey German counter-attack and I fancy him to collect his 25th international yellow. To boost the odds up even more I’m finishing this one with his Real Madrid team-mate Toni Kroos. With Kimmich out, I think Kroos’ experience will be relied on in midfield and when I saw he was booked in his previous two Nations League games and was 5/1 to be booked, I couldn’t resist. 

As always only bet what you can afford and gamble responsibly. 

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