Spain vs. Italy Betting Tips: 5/1 fancy for Nations League semi-final

Spain and Italy lock horns in the Nations League semi-finals on Thursday night in Enschede.

Scott Thornton has previewed the match and provided two tips.

After Spain disappointed at the World Cup, they have turned to Luis de la Fuente to turn their fortunes around after several barren tournaments.

The Spaniards were the envy of world football a little over a decade ago. Their possession-based brand of football made them a formidable opponent but they have lacked cutting edge in recent years. They suffered a shock defeat at the hands of Scotland in their last game and will be looking to bounce back here.

Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup despite entering qualifying as the reigning European champions. Roberto Mancini remains in charge of the Italians but recent results have been far from the level expected.

The former Manchester City manager has bemoaned his lack of squad depth in 2023. The team suffered back-to-back defeats against Austria and England. They have since beaten Malta but the clash with Spain is a far better barometer of the team.

The Italian players that featured in the Champions League final are all expected to start this. Nicolo Barella is integral to this team and his presence makes them a much better outfit.

Rodri is also expected to feature for Spain here after he scored the only goal in that final. The midfielder is a key player for this Spanish side that love to dominate possession.

Neither of these sides are at the peak of their powers but we can still expect an entertaining clash when they go toe-to-toe on Thursday night.

Spain’s two matches under de la Fuente have averaged 30.5 throws per game. There were 34 in their defeat against Scotland and 27 in their win over Norway.

Whoever is in charge, Spain are masters of controlling possession. Over the course of their last 20 matches, the Spaniards are averaging 72.7% possession. They have had more possession than their opponents in all 20 matches.

Spain’s desire to dominate the ball means that the opposition have very few opportunities to win throws. Their last 20 matches have seen an average of just 34.3 throws per game. Spain’s opponents contribute an average of just 14.9 per game.

Italy’s matches have also seen a throws average that is well below the bet line here. Their last 20 matches have seen an average of 35.35 per game.

We are also going to back Italian tackles. They had 17 the last time they played Spain. Across their last 20 competitive matches, dating back to June 2021, Italy are making an average of 15.2 tackles per game. They have had 12 tackles or more in nine of their last 10 matches.

Spain are forcing an average of 15.6 tackles per game in their last 20 competitive matches. The constant pressure they put on their opponents lends itself to the Italians making a good amount of tackles.

For our longer odds bet, we are going to take the same angles as our main bet with trickier required lines.

Italy’s last two encounters with Spain both came back in 2021. However, those matches saw just 30 and 33 throws so the first angle landed with relative ease on both occasions.

Tackles is the tougher of the two angles. However, Italy had 17 tackles in their last match and that was against a lowly Malta side. The Italian's tackle average falls just below the required mark for this bet to land. But we could see some frantic tackles as the semi-final draws to a close.