Southampton vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips: Best bets at St Mary's

Liverpool travel down to Southampton at St Mary’s Stadium for a Premier League clash scheduled for Sunday 24th November at 2pm. Oli Nixon has previewed the match and supplied his best bets.

If you’d offered Arne Slot 28 points from his first 11 league games in charge of Liverpool and a 5 point lead at the top of the table, it’s pretty safe to assume he would have snapped your hand off. That’s the reality of his start as Anfield boss though and with the Reds travelling to bottom side Southampton this weekend while Man City face Spurs, there’s every chance that lead could become 8 points by 4pm on Sunday afternoon.

In stark contrast, Southampton have taken just 4 points from their start to the season, scoring just 7 goals in the process. The last thing they need to improve their fortunes in front of goal is a game against the best defence in the league but with Liverpool having conceded just 6 goals so far, the task in front of them couldn’t be tougher. 

Whilst this game could be incredibly one sided, the data suggests it will be plenty combative. On the tackles front, Southampton’s home league games have seen an average of 40.6 tackles this season. Interestingly, their opponents have contributed 22.4 per game with Ipswich the only team to have less than 2-0 with their total of 17. For Liverpool, their league games on the road have seen 33 tackles per game and so also well over the total of 28 we need. Between these 2 sides games when Saints are at home and Liverpool are away, 80% of their games have had 28 or more tackles. 

Where free kicks are concerned, games at St. Mary’s are averaging 29.4 free kicks with an even split of 15.2 for and 14.2 against. Liverpool on their travels have seen 25.6 free kicks per game and so again, much higher than the line we need for this double. Across the aforementioned home and away games for these sides this season, 8 of the 10 games have seen 23 or more free kicks. With the averages being so high on both sides of this bet, I wouldn’t put anyone off laddering this and going higher but we’ll play safe for this column.

Southampton are a shambles defending set pieces and I’m banking on their ex coming back to bite them with Van Dijk to have a shot the first part of another double.

Russell Martin’s men have conceded 7 set-piece goals this season with only Wolves conceding more. They’ve given up 23 shots to opposition centre-backs this season and these numbers show no sign of slowing down. Van-Dijk has averaged 0.55 shots per 90 this season which is healthy enough for a centre back and having scored 25 goals for Liverpool, he’ll be the main set-piece target. 

I’ve mentioned centre-back passes against Liverpool several times in these columns this season and just like the set piece angle for Southampton, this one continues to provide value. 14 different centre-backs have had at least 55 passes against them this season with the average across all competitions for centre backs sat at a whopping 49.86. Despite being bottom of the table, Southampton are stubborn in their possession-heavy style and Stephens has averaged 75 passes per 90 this season. He’s had 55 or more passes in 6 of his 7 appearances, only falling short against Man City which he can be forgiven for.

Southampton vs Liverpool Lineups

The starting lineups for Southampton vs Liverpool will be displayed in the graphic below once the team news has been announced.