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Southampton vs. Newcastle Betting Tips: Two bets for Carabao Cup semi-final first-leg

Betting preview and tips for Southampton vs Newcastle in the League Cup
Betting preview and tips for Southampton vs Newcastle in the League Cup

Attention turns to the Carabao Cup this week as the final four teams do battle in the first-legs of the semi-finals, ahead of next week’s reverse fixtures.

On Tuesday it’s South vs North as Newcastle make the long 300+ mile mid-week trip down to St Mary’s where they’ll face Southampton, live on Sky Sports at 8pm.

Here at BettingOdds, we’ve previwed the cup clash and picked out our best two bets.

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Southampton vs Newcastle Odds

Newcastle United
WIN PROB: 68%
1
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£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
£40 FREE BET
4/9
£30 FREE BET
Draw
WIN PROB: 23%
1
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3/1
£40 FREE BET
3/1
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Southampton
WIN PROB: 13%
1
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7/1
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6/1
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6/1
£30 FREE BET
6/1
Odds correct as of 2023-01-26 22:45 Odds subject to change.

Premier League basement boys Southampton have endured a rotten season in the top-flight, yet they remain alive and kicking in the domestic cups as they chase their first taste of major silverware since the 1975/76 FA Cup.

The Saints stunned favourites Man City in the previous round and have now been thrown another in-form Premier League obstacle in Newcastle, who have lost just twice in 25 matches in all competitions this season.

The same year Southampton won the aforementioned FA Cup, Newcastle reached the League Cup final where they lost 2-1 to Man City, while you have to go back a further 20+ years for Newcastle’s last major trophy: 1954/55 FA Cup.

There is a feeling that something special is brewing at St James' Park and the League Cup offers Eddie Howe's men their best avenue for silverware this season. His side thrashed Southampton 4-1 at St Mary’s earlier this season and head into Tuesday’s match as the 4/5 (Betfred) favourites to return home with the spoils.

The Saints are 4/1 (bet365) to conjure up another League Cup upset on home soil, while a draw can be backed at 5/2 with the same bookmaker.

Southampton vs Newcastle Tips

League Cup Outright Winner Betting
James Ward-Prowse Over 0.5 Shots On Target
5/4
Odds correct as of 2023-01-23 15:10 Odds subject to change.

Five of Southampton’s last eight goals have been scored by James Ward-Prowse, reflecting his own individual improvement in front of goal and Southampton’s lack of firepower elsewhere.

The Saints skipper, who also had a goal rather harshly ruled out last weekend against Aston Villa, is one of the very best out there at free-kicks, he's on penalty duty too, isn’t afraid to shoot from distance, and is now enjoying success in a more advanced No.10 role, which gives him more opportunities in front of goal.

Ward-Prowse has had eight shots on target in his last seven games, including a whopping four against Everton, and has two goals in his last four cup appearances.

At 5/4 he looks a solid price to register a shot on goal on Tuesday night.

Football Tips
Vojnovic Lyanco carded, James Ward-Prowse Over 0.5 SOT, & Under 3 goals
16/1
Odds correct as of 2023-01-23 15:15 Odds subject to change.

For the long shot I’m eyeing up three outcomes in the game which combine to produce a 16/1 Bet Builder with bet365.

To kick things off, as above, I’m tasking an in-form James Ward-Prowse to have at least one shot on target. He has six goals in his last 10 games and is the nucleus of his side’s attacking play right now.

Next up, I’m backing under three goals at 4/5, a bet which has landed in six of Southampton’s last nine home games including the last three in a row. 

James Ward-Prowse aside, Southampton are really struggling for goals, which isn’t particularly encouraging for the hosts ahead of the visit of an extremely well-coached Newcastle backline. The Toon have the Premier League's best defence, conceding just 11 goals so far, while five of their last six games in all competitions have contained under three goals.

Last but not least, I’m throwing a Vojnovic Lyanco card into the mix at 11/4, which has landed in a sizeable five of his last 16 games. No one could ever doubt the Southampton defender’s passion and determination, but he does have a rash and reckless side to him, which has resulted in back-to-back bookings against Everton and Aston Villa. 

Lyanco has been deployed at right-back at times meaning it’s possible that he’ll be directly up against the trickery and speed of Allan Saint-Maximin, a difficult proposition for any defender.

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