Southampton vs. Manchester United Betting Tips: Two data driven bets for the early kick off

Manchester United surprised many by securing a win over Liverpool at the start of the week. Southampton should provide a sufficient test to assess whether United have indeed made progress, or if they managed to raise their game against their great rivals.

Southampton have failed to beat United since 2016, but both encounters last season ended in a draw, so they are more than capable of getting all three points here. Erik Ten Hag’s side were lacklustre in their last away game against Brentford, and the Dutchman will be keen to ensure those mistakes are eradicated for the trip down south.

Casemiro could make an appearance for United, having been unveiled at Old Trafford on Monday. Ronaldo is linked heavily with a move away, so it seems unlikely he will feature. Ten Hag wants his side to be proactive when out of possession, and the hallmarks of his style are starting to show.

I like the tackles angle for the visitors here. The press have speculated that Ten Hag disciplined his players after the 4-0 defeat to Brentford, and they responded by marauding the pitch and getting stuck into tackles against Liverpool. United had 24 tackles in that game, and I expect them to beat the bookmakers line here.

Man United have had 19, 19, 19 and 24 tackles on their last four visits to St. Mary’s, so there’s every reason to believe they will exceed the tackle line here.

I’m also expecting United to have a number of efforts on goal. They surprised by having 13 shots against Liverpool, and Southampton have conceded a fair amount of shots in their recent meetings with United. The Reds have managed 15, 15 and 21 shots in the last three head-to-heads away from home, and I think they will let fly here.

In the last five matches where they have been similarly priced to win, Southampton are conceding an average of 18 shots per game. United’s energetic front line should be able to cause problems for the home side, and I don’t expect the visitors to runaway with the match, so they will be chasing goals until the final whistle; this should help our bet even further.

For the longshot bet, I’ll take the same angles as our main bet and increase the lines to create a better price. I’m also going to add in Southampton goal kicks. 

If United get the shots away, the goal kicks have a reasonable chance. Rashford and co are not the most clinical of forwards, and they will miss the target with a number of efforts. Bruno Fernandes and Christian Eriksen also like to have a go from distance, which should further help our cause here.

Southampton had 11 goal kicks when these teams played at this ground last season, and United should attack from the off in order to carry momentum from their win over Liverpool. Despite losing 4-0, United also managed to force 12 goal kicks from Brentford in their last away game, so the line for this bet is very much attainable.