Southampton vs. Manchester City Predictions: Two bets for Sunday's FA Cup tie

It’s no surprise that the City juggernaut enters the fray as 1.30 favourites. Pep’s winning machine seeks their second FA Cup lift with the Spaniard at the controls, as Southampton is tasked as being the unfortunate entity between Manchester City and even more silverware.

Swindon, Fulham, and Peterborough provided the FA Cup route so far for Manchester City. An aggregate scoreline of 10-2 against the lower division sides suggests that City are by no means impenetrable, but that there would be no magic of the cup rearing its head under Guardiola’s stewardship this year.

Three poor Premier League results on the spin paint a forlorn backdrop to Southampton’s quarter-final. Before their stuttering start to March, The Saints had lost just once in 13 fixtures. It was a run that included a 1-1 draw against the Champions at St Mary’s, with Ralph Hasenhuttl’s squad leading for just under an hour.

Whilst certainly not a bogey-side of Manchester City’s, Southampton have etched out impressive results against the Sky Blues in recent times. Both Premier League fixtures ended as a draw this season. An impressive feat for Southampton in a dominant era at the Etihad Stadium. 

In the last six meetings, Southampton’s record stands as two draws, one victory to the tune of 1-0 on home soil, and three defeats against City. That’s an impressive haul for a team outside of the top-flight’s chasing pack.

Although often imperious and swatting aside teams in their stride, City comes into this game having not scored in two consecutive fixtures. Nevertheless, I imagine there will be no hangover for Pep and company.

Given your standard 1x2 and goals markets look a bit thin in the ground in terms of value, we’ll have to look elsewhere for an angle in. 

In the two matches between the pair this campaign, Manchester City registered 20 shots on the South coast and 16 at home. A by-product of the relentless waves of Manchester City attacks were corners, with Pep’s men recording 11 and 8 flags, respectively. 

Given the importance of the tie and the previous meetings between the two sides, there’s every chance that City take their time in breaking the deadlock. If that is the case, shots should be on the menu, and in abundance. 

The 10 Asian Total Corners at bet365 provides an appealing passage into the quarters. Not only has this line avoided defeat in the last eight head-to-heads (13, 13, 10, 12, 15, 17, 11, and 11), but Southampton rank fourth in corners taken in the Premier League.

Southampton's 6.60 per90 at St Mary's this season is accompanied by City's tall corner average whilst on their travels. At a total of 8.07 corners forced per90, City boasts the highest away corner total, as well as the loftiest home figure (9.07) in the top tier. 

In an attempt to carve a longer-priced play out of the quarter-final fixture, there are two player prop angles in blue that have witnessed some joy against The Saints.

Focusing on one selection that has banked in the last two head-to-heads, and in 16 of 27 Premier League fixtures, brings us to City’s marauding full-back, Joao Cancelo. The 2.00 price at bet365 for City’s number 27 to have over 1.5 shots is one to consider.

With a 2.2 shots per90 average spanning the season, the want to have a pop at goal is there. If Southampton proves as stubborn opponents as they have done in previous meetings, expect both full-backs to pin The Saints into their defensive third and work goalscoring positions for themselves or teammates. 

Cancelo’s central defensive partner, Ruben Dias makes up the final selection for the 4.00 bet builder. Utilising the 74.5 passing line, perhaps we can increase the odds with a straightforward pick. Hitting 75 or more passes is something Dias has covered in 7 of 8 most recent fixtures and 3 out of 4 against Southampton. Dias has a 79.5 per90 passing average from his 24 appearances in the Premier League this term.

At 4.00, we have three selections with plenty of positive numbers behind them. If the game state remains a close affair, the magic of the FA Cup may announce itself in our favour.