Russia v Denmark Tips: Back Kjaer to find the book

The cynosure of today's European action takes place in Group B as Russia lockhorns with Denmark in Copenhagen. 

As it stands, Russia are in second with three points and Denmark are fourth on zero, however, victory for the Danes this evening could see them leapfrog Stanislav Cherchesov’s side and Finland if the Eagle Owls lose to Belgium. Nevertheless, whatever happens in the Danish capital will have huge permutations on this group. 

Price wise, the bookmakers fancy the Red and White to get the job done here, pricing them as clear favourites at around 4/6. In terms of probability, this puts their expected chance of victory at 60%, however, they have actually won 99% of their games when priced accordingly.   

Kasper Hjulmand is expected to rotate as well. He opted for a back five for the visit of Roberto Martínez’s side, however, he should revert back to the 4-3-3 formation he deployed in their opening game vs Finland. This would see Martin Braithwaite and Yussuf Poulsen flank Jonas Wind in attack and Mathias Jensen come in alongside Thomas Delaney and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg in midfield. 

As for the hosts, their huge win over Finland in their last fixture should mean the only change here is an enforced one. Vyacheslav Karavaev should replace Mario Fernandes  as right wing back, as the latter was taken to hospital with a suspected spine injury.

My first fancy for this fixture is Denmark to win and the game to feature three or less goals at 11/8 with Bet365. 

Only 15% of the 26 games to take place so far have seen four or more goals scored which paints a picture of the slow, more tentative nature of the tournament. This, combined with the Danes poor conversion rate suggests that this fixture might not feature many goals. 

Denmark have generated an xG of over four but only scored one as they have hit the woodwork and missed a penalty. It is also worth noting that a point will be good enough for Russia which, once again, supports the idea of a low scoring fixture. 

As Denmark’s price indicates though, they should have enough to overcome Russia here. It is also worth noting that in the game vs Belgium we saw how the Danes had harnessed the anguish of what happened to Eriksen and rallied together. With another capacity crowd behind them at the Parken Stadium I think they will secure all three points.

Another intriguing aspect of this fixture will be the battle between Artem Dzyuba and Simon Kjaer. Russia’s 6ft 6in totemic vocal point and captain offers goals and a huge personality for his nation, however, more importantly and crucially for this bet, he loves a wrestle. 

In Our Guys nine most recent competitive international fixtures, Dzyuba has drawn an average of 1.83 fouls per game as his cumbersome stature and physical approach often draws his opposite number in for a fight. This is why seven centre backs have gone into the book in those nine fixtures.

This should pit Simon Kjaer against him and with Clément Turpin in charge of this one, I am happy to take Betfair and Paddy Powers prices of 5/1.

There is no scenario here in which Denmark can afford to do anything other than win, therefore, they simply have to go for it.

Over their first two fixtures they have accumulated 43 shots - eleven of which on target and 29 have come from inside the box - as they have generated an xG of 4.22. However, they only have one goal to show for it as they have hit the bar and missed a penalty. 

Given how this fixture is poised - and Denmark’s underlying data- their shot lines with William Hill take appeal. The Danes racked up 22 shots vs Finland and 21 vs Belgium meaning they have hit William Hill’s line of 19 on both occasions.

Using Betfair’s ‘Same Game Multi’ feature you can combine a Kjaer card with an Dzyuba one at 50/1 and this certainly takes interest.

Whilst Russia's talisman has got a knack of drawing fouls his combative nature means he concedes a fair few as well. This is best illustrated by the fact that he tops his nations charts for fouls conceded averaging two a game in this tournament. 

Best of luck if you are following any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.