Rugby League World Cup: An Epic at The Emirates Awaits in Semi-Final
England vs Samoa Odds
England have been arguably the team of the tournament so far in the Men's Rugby League World Cup and Shaun Wane's men have seen their price crash for outright glory from 16/1 pre-tournament into as short as 7/2 in places at the time of writing. They began their campaign with a message to the rugby league world in thumping Samoa 60-6 at St James' Park, when betting underdogs on the day, to announce themselves as genuine World Champion contenders. The Samoans were way below par that day and proved their credentials with an epic quarter-final win over Tonga last Sunday to set up a rematch of the opener in North London. A bumper crowd and huge television audience is expected for the game being broadcast on BBC, and our man Billy Grimshaw has you covered with a big game preview. After success with both tips at 10/11 and 6/1 in England's quarter final last time out, let's hope the winners continue to roll...
England vs Samoa Tips:
It may seem rather optimistic to predict a 54 point turnaround in a game between two sides that clashed under a month ago, but at massive odds of 55/1 with Betfair (this same result is half the price elsewhere) I can't resist backing this sensational semi-final to go right down to the wire and end up with the scores level after eighty minutes. As mentioned in the introduction, England blew Samoa away in the tournament opener but although the personnel may be similar the performance of the Samoan side will undoubtedly be levels above that afternoon in Newcastle with a place in the World Cup final on the line. The Samoan coach Matt Parish warned his side were undercooked that day and it was evident for all to see, with errors aplenty and lacklustre defence making England's job much easier than predicted.
The hosts were phenomenal that day, and indeed have been all tournament, so are rightly the favourites to make it to Old Trafford. Their first half blitz of Papua New Guinea in the quarter final was as close to rugby league perfection as one is ever likely to see. George Williams has been pulling the strings all tournament, Sam Tomkins is a wise head at the back and England's outside backs, particularly wingmen Tommy Makinson and Dom Young, have been scoring tries for fun all tournament and will fancy their chances of more glory on Saturday. It is the forward pack that has really stood up for the English however, with old warhorses Chris Hill and Mike Cooper doing a fine job of silencing their doubters while Tom Burgess is playing the best rugby of his career. Shaun Wane has coached the side perfectly so far and the former Wigan boss will hammer out any hints of complacency in his team should any squad member expect Samoa to be remotely as poor as they were in the North East.
The Samoans have undoubtedly grown into the tournament, with each performance seeing their star studded side look fitter and more cohesive than the last. Anthony Milford picked up the man of the match award in their memorable quarter-final win over Tonga but it is his half back partner Jarome Luai that the Samoan fans will be looking to to guide them to their first ever World Cup final. Luai has engaged in something of a war of words with England's young star halfback Jack Welsby throughout the tournament and after being outclassed by the 21 year old last time they met will be out for revenge. The Samoan forward pack is littered with some of the biggest and best packmen in world rugby and they are a match for anyone up the middle. Their inspirational captain Junior Paulo successfully appealed a one game ban he picked up in the quarter-final so is free to play, so both sides will be at full strength. On paper the Samoans have the stronger 17, however with the form, confidence and coaching of England this looks a match-up for the ages. This game could come down to a moment of brilliance or, heaven forbid, a missed tackle like Kevin Sinfield's on Shaun Johnson in the dying seconds of the 2013 semi at Wembley, so with the teams so closely matched backing the draw at massive odds is my main play in the game.
If Samoa are to compete with England rather than wilt like they did in their first meeting, they will need all their stars firing at top performance. Of course Luai, Milford and the pack come into this equation, but the potential joker in the pack for the underdogs is 19 year old superstar Joseph Suaalii. The Sydney Roosters man was voted winger of the year in the NRL last season, no mean feat in a competition as stacked as that, but has been trusted to play full back for his nation since declaring his allegiance and turning down a Kangaroos jumper. To say Suaalii looked nervous in the tournament opener would be an understatement, with plenty of errors with ball in hand and some poor defensive positioning leading many to doubt his credentials in the number 1 jersey.
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Since that day in Newcastle, however, Suaalii has shown why he is the highest rated youngster in either code of rugby with some freakish stats and unstoppable kick returns. The teenager still has some filling out to do but standing at 6'5 and being able to hit a frightening top speed, he has skittled some elite defenders at this tournament and left onlookers gasping at his other worldly attributes. Suaalii is sometimes simply impossible to stop and although England have boasted a mean defensive record this tournament, the Roosters phenomenon looks overpriced to bag a four pointer in this game. He is probably worth chancing in the man of the match market as well, best priced 8/1 with William Hill, but I will stick with backing him to score anytime for tipping purposes here. Suaalii is the most naturally gifted player at this tournament and with his improved displays as the World Cup has gone on, expect him to have a big say in which way this game goes on Saturday.
