Real Madrid vs. Valencia Betting Tips: A trio of bets for Thursday's ITV4 La Liga clash
Posted: 16:26 Wednesday 1st February 2023
Betting preview and tips for Thursday's La Liga match between Real Madrid and Valencia on February 2, 2023
Real Madrid and Valencia meet on Thursday in La Liga's first of two ITV4 televised games this week.
Our match preview has all your betting-related needs covered: from a look at the form guide and other popular betting stats to odds for a range of match markets, as well as in-depth reasoning behind two recommended punting opportunities.
Form Guide
Real Madrid's last five La Liga results: W W L W D
Real Madrid's last five results across all competitions: L W W W D
Valencia's last five La Liga results: W L L D L
Valencia's last five results across all competitions: L W L D L
The hosts are overwhelming favourites for this clash at around the 4/11 mark, while underdog backers may be tempted by a Valencia win at as high as 15/2. The draw is best priced 3/1 with BetUK.
Stats Zone
BTTS
- BTTS has landed in all but one of Madrid's eight La Liga home matches so far this term
- Valencia have scored in six of the last seven La Liga games while on the road
Over/Under Goals
- Madrid have a clearance rate of just under 90% this term for over 1.5 goals in their matches
- 66.7% of Real's league fixtures have seen over 2.5 goals
- Three of Valencia's last five games have hit the O/2.5 mark
Cards
- Madrid are the most disciplined team in La Liga, picking up the fewest total bookings so far (26 yellows in 18 games)
- Valencia have received at least one yellow card in five of their most recent six matches across all competitions
The state of play for the current La Liga title race is that holders Madrid find themselves five points adrift of leaders Barcelona after both having played 18 games each. That could be extended to eight points before Thursday's kick-off, with Barcelona in action against Real Betis the night prior.
In direct contrast to Real's ambitions, Valencia are hanging by a thread above the relegation zone, level on 20 points with three other clubs.
As a result, Thursday's clash is a must-win for both involved.
Real Madrid vs Valencia Betting Tips
Edinson Cavani to score anytime
Edinson Cavani is enjoying a new lease of life in Spain. After having his time at Manchester United be hampered by injuries, it appeared as though Valencia's summer Bosman might have carried these concerns over to the La Liga outfit.
However, with the World Cup now behind him - which may have taken priority and left him unwilling to take any risks with his fitness - Cavani has decidedly unleashed his wrath on the Spanish top flight.
The 35-year-old Uruguayan's goalscoring instincts have returned him seven goals from 13 appearances since joining. And although he's gone three games without notching, goalmouth action has not eluded the striker whose 10 shots across his four most recent outings indicate he's still as hungry as ever for goals.
If we crunch the numbers, we realise that Cavani boasts a goals per game ratio of 0.53, meaning it's roughly taking him two games to score one goal. If we dig deeper, these figures only continue to impress for the forward of a team placed 14th - who averages a goal every 142 minutes across all competitions or 154 mins strictly in La Liga.
Of course the strength of Thursday's opposition is the reasoning behind his price, but Madrid have proven themselves far more penetrable than during last season's comfortable road to the title; conceding only five goals fewer than their counterparts here despite a 22-point, 12 place gap.
The home side's record for BTTS - landing in seven from a possible eight matches at the Santiago Bernabeu - also suggests that Thursday's travellers should have every reason to believe they'll find the net at least once.
Edinson Cavani to be carded
Edinson Cavani is again the subject for our second bet, where he's being backed to pick up a yellow card.
Alongside his goalscoring efforts, El Matador is becoming a somewhat reliable source for cards over in Spain, picking up three in his last four league matches.
And that's not just by means of committing a foul, either. Two of the former PSG forward's three bookings have been received without committing a single foul, exhibiting the fiery side to a character we all know and love.
And if any club is likely to get under his skin, it's Real Madrid. Cavani is used to a higher standard than Valencia are currently delivering, and that is bound to rile him up on the pitch. Even at 35, his expectations for himself and for his career will not have dwindled much.
A pasting from the title challengers, a close game that could earn Valencia vital points in their bid for safety or a momentary lapse in judgement are all potential avenues for this one landing.
If you want to pair both selections up in a single bet, bet365 go 25/1, with the double as short as 14/1 elsewhere.
Did you know that bet365 pay your team out as a winner if they go 2 goals ahead at any time in the match (available on over 80 leagues and competitions, T&C's apply). Find out more on our bet365 offers page.
Edinson Cavani to score anytime & be carded
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