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Real Madrid v Chelsea Tips: Three bets for UCL semi

Real Madrid v Chelsea Tips: Jorginho features in tonight's bets
Real Madrid v Chelsea Tips: Jorginho features in tonight's bets

Live on BT Sport, 13-time winners Real Madrid host Chelsea in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final. This is the first time these sides have met competitively since 1998 and the bookies are struggling to split the two, with it being hard to disagree. As the home side Madrid are 7/5 favourites on the night but are 4/5 to reach the final, Chelsea slightly longer at 1/1.

Chelsea fans wouldn’t have dreamt of being in this position a few months back sitting mid table in the Premier League, the arrival Thomas Tuchel has seen him transform this side massively. With just 2 losses in 21 games since the Germans arrival, the Blues look a strong outfit in all competitions and a win here vs Real Madrid would give them every chance of reaching their second Cup final of the season.

With that being said, Madrid won’t make life easy. The Spaniards haven’t tasted defeat in any of their last 17 games, a run stretching back to the end of January. It's no surprise to see Zidane's men reach this stage of the competition yet again, the experience this squad possess might just be enough to edge them past the up-and-coming Blues.

Team News

Madrid will be boosted by the return of first choice right back Carvajal after he played 90 minutes on the weekend, but will be without captain Sergio Ramos. Mendy is still injured so it will be interesting to see who Zidane opts for at Left back, with it being a toss-up between Marcelo and Nacho.

Mateo Kovacic is the only injury concern for Chelsea. The Croation is still yet to recover from a thigh issue suffered a few weeks back.

Today's football tips
Real Madrid v Chelsea
27/04 20:00
Both teams 4+ corners
5/6
Odds correct as of 2021-04-27 09:15 Odds subject to change.

This game will be tactically fascinating from a neutral's perspective, and with it so hard to call the specifics of how this game pans out, I will be heading to the corners market for my first selection.

Chelsea’s corner average has increased under Tuchel and I think they can get at Madrid here especially down the flanks. Reece James and Ben Chilwell hold huge importance both attacking and defending and will no doubt have a role to play on Tuesday night. Carvajal and Nacho are the two full backs expected to play and neither of them are blessed with pace. Chelsea should look to overload the wide areas, usually resulting in corners.

The home side are never shy of racking up the corners either. They are averaging 5.8 corners per game in the league and with the game right in the balance, you’d expect both teams to have spells of dominance. Madrid will want a positive result to take away to Stamford Bridge and will give it a right go, which should result in at least 4 corners.

Champions League betting
27/04 20:00
Mount to be carded
9/2
Odds correct as of 2021-04-27 09:20 Odds subject to change.

With this being a Champions League semi-final and Mr Makkeli at the whistle, some of the card prices are understandably short but one does catch my eye. Bet365 have Mount priced at 9/2 and I think this holds some value.

The talented Englishman has been the main man for Chelsea this season, operating effectively at both ends of the pitch. However, his attacking output decreases in the Champions League with more responsibility defensively vs the top sides.

He's picked up 3 cards in 8 Appearances which is a large increase in comparison to his league tally. He will be kept busy here and should operate down the side of Vinicius Jr who can often draw the fouls. Mounts averaging 2.5 fouls per 90 minutes in Europe this season which will be the highest of any Chelsea starter vs Madrid.

The 9/2 on offer suggests an 18% chance of winning but given the stature of the game and all things considered I think this price holds some value.

27/04 20:00
Casemiro shot on target, Jorginho to be booked and over 10.5 corners
25/1
Odds correct as of 2021-04-27 09:20 Odds subject to change.

For my longshot I will once again be using Betfair's bet builder feature, to create an exciting 25/1 poke. I've added 2 selections on top of my corner expectations.

Casemiro loves a pop from range and without Ramos can be one of the main threats from set pieces. The Brazilian is averaging 1.3 shots per game this season and had another 2 on the weekend vs Betis.

The Jorginho booking speaks for itself. He has been booked in 6 of his last 16 Champions League games and is never scared to make the tactical fouls in this Chelsea side. The intensity of this game could be too much for Jorginho here, hopefully resulting in a caution for the centre midfielder.

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