Real Madrid v Barcelona Tips: Los Blancos fancied in El Clasico
The two biggest clubs in Spain collide in the capital on Saturday evening as Real Madrid lock horns with Barcelona. This is a fixture that will cast huge ramifications on the proceedings at top of the table.
The hosts currently sit in third place on 63 points, trailing Barca by two points. A victory for Zidane’s men would see them leapfrog their bitter foe, setting up a thrilling crescendo as we approach the home straight of the La Liga season. However, three points for the visitors would make the title charge a two horse race between them and Atleti.
In terms of team news, Los Blancos are without their first choice centre back partnership with Sergio Ramos (injured) and Raphael Varane (COVID) both ruled out here. This should mean Real field the same side that swept aside Liverpool in the Champions League in midweek. Barcelona remain without long term absentee’s Philippe Countinho and Ansu Fati, however, Gerard Pique has been included in the squad following a spell on the sidelines.
The bookies have favoured Barca here pricing them around 13/10 here, however, Real Madrid are the value as they have won 56% of their games when priced at 9/5.
With Ramos and Varane sidelined, Eder Militao should get the nod once more at the heart of Los Blancos defence. Given El Clásico’s relationship with cards the majority of the players priced up in this market are painfully short, however, at 7/2 with Bet365 Militao represents value regardless of the occasion.
The young Brazilian defender has only featured in La Liga and the Champions League for a combined total of 530 minutes this campaign yet has still managed to accumulate four cards (three yellows and one red). This means that, on average, he has picked up a card every one and a half games played yet the implied probability of his odds (22.9%) indicates he goes into the book much less frequently.
When Barcelona comes to town, Militao will likely be opposing a certain Lionel Messi. The Argentine has drawn an average of 2.4 fouls per game, an average that is bested by just five La Liga players. In Barcelona’s last ten fixtures, at least one opposition CB has been cautioned in 70% of the games as a third of them have gone into the book!
Since joining Real Madrid, Casemiro has made his name as the enforcer amongst the Galactico's often providing the balance in midfield. However, this campaign he has popped up with some pivotal in some lacklustre Madrid performances.
This campaign - in the league and UCL- Casemiro has registered two or more shots in 37% of his 30 starts. It is also worth noting that without Sergio Ramos, Casemiro becomes the target from set pieces. In the eleven La Liga games he has played without Ramos, Casemiro has racked up 25 shots and scored three goals. Therefore, it might be worth taking Betfair’s price of 8/1 for him to register a headed shot on target or Unibet's price of 18/1 to score a header.
Despite playing in the capital, Barcelona go off at favourites here and given the run that they have been on- 51 league points from a possible 57- you can see why. However, it is worth noting that they have not done anything outstanding in that run and the last time sides met Real ran out 3-1 winners at the Camp Nou.
As previously mentioned, Casemiro’s shot prices seem generous. The Brazilian CDM has hit three or more in just under a quarter of his domestic and UCL appearances this season. I also like Vinícius Júnior’s price to find the net here. Casemiro’s compatriot ran riot against Trent Alexander-Arnold in the UCL in midweek bagging himself a brace. Koeman could opt for Dest and Pique down the right hand side of defence on Saturday, a duo that the youngster will terrorise.
Using Paddy Power's ‘Bet Builder’ feature you can combine these three selections at odds of 64/1.
Best of luck if you are joining me in any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.
