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Real Madrid vs Inter Milan Odds: Two stats based bets for Champions League Group D decider

Real Madrid v Inter tips: Shots on the cards for Matchday 6
Real Madrid v Inter tips: Shots on the cards for Matchday 6

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On any other matchday Real Madrid v Inter Milan would be considered Champions League category A, but with both teams safely through the knockout stages not only does it open up the match to be a somewhat sterile affair but also a tricky one to judge from a betting point of view.

Real Madrid top Group D thanks to four wins including a 0-1 in Milan on Matchday 1. A shock home defeat to Sheriff has been put behind them and they've amassed 12 points from their five games, scoring 12 times and conceding just three.

Inter sit two points behind so depending on how ambitious they're feeling they still have the chance to go through as top seeds with a win in the Spanish capital.

Both teams are flying domestically, Real have won their last five in La Liga and now sit on top of the league, eight points clear of their closest rivals Sevilla, Inter meanwhile have also won their last five games and are a point behind neighbours AC Milan at the summit of Serie A.

In terms of the betting for Tuesday's clash at the Bernabeu I've steered clear of player props on the basis of not knowing who will be playing. Real have a Madrid derby at the weekend against Atletico so could well be rotating here so I've put up two stats based bets for the match.

Real Madrid v Inter Milan Tips

Real Madrid v Inter Milan Odds

Today's football tips
Real Madrid to have 14+ shots
11/10
Odds correct as of 2021-12-06 14:25 Odds subject to change.

Real Madrid are averaging over 19 shots per game in the Champions League this season and although they're up against the Italian champions here they managed to fire off 12 shots in Milan back in September.

They're averaging slightly less in la Liga at just over 16 shots per game but as the home team I'd still expect Real to be the dominant force here and in Benzema and Vinicius they have players who are averaging over three shots per game in the UCL this season. In fact, Benzema is averaging 4.8 shots per game in Europe and 2 per game on target.

At 11/10 with Paddy Power for Real to have 14 or more shots in the match I think you're getting a bit of value based on the stats and their season averages both domestically and in the Champions League.

Real Madrid v Inter Milan Odds
Both teams to have 4+ shots on target & Real Madrid to win by exactly 1 goal
8/1
Odds correct as of 2021-12-06 14:40 Odds subject to change.

I've gone for an 8/1 Bet Builder with Paddy Power for my second bet.

I think it could be a pretty tight game given both teams are already qualified but I like Madrid to edge the contest so taking the Real Madrid to win by 1 goal bet and adding that to both teams to get four shots on target. Carlo Ancelotti's side won the reverse fixture 1-0 and they've won their last four matches against Inter.

Real are averaging 6.4 shots on target per game in La Liga this season (16 appearances) whilst they're averaging 7.4 shots on target per game in the Champions League.

Inter are also averaging over 6 shots per game in both Serie A and the Champions League (6.3, 6.4) and had 5 shots on target int he return match.

Putting all three selections in a Bet Builder pays a smidge over 8/1.

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