RB Leipzig vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds and Lineups: Two bets for tonight’s game

Premier League pace setters Liverpool will be looking to add an 11th victory from Arne Slot’s first 12 games in charge whenthey travel to Germany tonight to take on RB Leipzig in the Champions League.

Read on for Oli Nixon's best bets for the game.

Standing in Liverpool’s way are a Leipzig side who sit joint top of the Bundesliga themselves having conceded just two goals in their first seven league fixtures.  

Marco Rose’s side are yet to pick up a point in European competition having been beaten by both Juventus and Atletico Madrid and will be all too aware of the need for points on home soil if they are to have any chance of progressing beyond the group stage.

Backing passes against an Arne Slot side might seem an interesting approach given his high press, however, a quirk in the data suggests that Liverpool engage their press when the ball is at the feet of opposition full backs far more so than when their centre backs are in possession.  

This is emphasised most clearly by the pass numbers of those opposition centre backs where at least one has gone within 5 passes of this line in the following games: 

• Colwill 78 for Chelsea 
• Lucumi 67 for Bologna 
• Gomes 54 for Wolves 
• Zabarnyi 60 for Bournemouth 
• Pavlovic 68 and Tomori 55 for AC Milan 
• Martinez 65 and De Ligt 55 for Man Utd 
• Collins 54 for Brentford 

Castello Lukeba has averaged 66 passes per 90 minutes this season in all competitions having landed at least 59 in five of his eight starts.  

On home soil, that average increases to 77 passes per game and in his two Champions League appearances he’s managed 68 against Juventus and 87 away at Atletico Madrid.  

Whilst Willi Orban is Leipzig’s most used ball playing defender with an average of 79 passes per game this season, Leipzig’s preference for a back three should mean that Lukeba also sees plenty of the ball and can profit from Liverpool’s tendency to sit off in this area of the pitch.

Speaking of Willi Orban, the big Hungarian is a serious set piece threat. He’s managed 1.15 shots per 90 minutes this season and his four shots in the last Champions League gameweek against Juventus emphasise just how potent he can be.  

He’s consistently been a target man from corners and attacking free kicks throughout his career and his record of 29 goals in 309 career appearances, averaging 0.7 shots per game is all the evidence we need for that.  

Liverpool have allowed 11 shots from centre backs in their opening 11 games of Slot’s reign and Trevoh Chalobah, Max Kilman, Nathan Collins and Greaves of Ipswich all having had two each against them suggests that Orban will get plenty of chances. The last time they travelled to Leipzig was back in 2021, a game in which centre back Lukas Klostermann also managed two shots.  

Whilst that game was under different regimes for both sides, we can expect set pieces to be a plan of attack for a team who start out as the clear underdogs despite home advantage. In the last three seasons, Orban has made 12 Champions League appearances and managed 13 shots and so it’s clear that the glamour of European football prompts him to bring out his shooting boots and so hopefully he’s wearing them on Wednesday. 

RB Leipzig vs Liverpool Lineups

There have been three changes for Liverpool with Darwin Nunez, Alexis Mac Allister, and Kostas Tsimikas all coming in.

Xavi Simons starts for RB Leipzig, as does former Liverpool keeper Peter Gulacsi.

Full lineups below.