RB Leipzig vs. Man City Betting Tips: Two data-driven plays from Germany

Manchester City travel to Red Bull Leipzig in the Champions League last 16 on Wednesday and Scott Thornton is on hand with his two best bets

Manchester City's domestic campaign has been atypical, as they shift their attention towards the elusive Champions League title, which has evaded them since the acquisition by Sheikh Mansour in 2009. Despite being a dominant force in English football for many years, they recognise the significance of this trophy. Though they still have a chance of winning the Premier League, many believe their primary focus is now on the European stage.

RB Leipzig, who finished second in their group, face a daunting challenge in confronting Pep Guardiola's side. However, Manchester City will proceed with caution as Leipzig secured an impressive victory against the reigning champions Real Madrid in the group stages, which demonstrates that any team can triumph.

Manchester City have had an indifferent season by their own lofty standards. They have had a number of great results but a lack of consistency that has cost them in their race for the title. Haaland was brought in during the summer and many expected the forward to elevate Pep’s team to new heights. The Norwegian has held up his end of the bargain by scoring a ludicrous amount of goals but the team have looked lacklustre at times. They dropped points against Nottingham Forest after regaining top spot by beating Arsenal but Pep will want to ensure this complacency doesn’t creep into their Champions League campaign.

RB Leipzig still have the opportunity to clinch their first Bundesliga crown. The German league is extremely tight this season and the next few months could be huge for Marco Rose’s men.

The opening stages of this tie should be tentative. The home side will be keen to ensure they don’t afford City a lot of space in the final third. An early goal for the visitors could mean the tie gets beyond them early on.

Manchester City’s Champions League matches this season have averaged 30 throws per game. Only PSG’s matches saw fewer throws in the group stages. When playing away from home in this competition, City’s average throws climbs slightly to 31. Pep’s side’s matches average 32.6 throws in their last 10 fixtures. There were 36 throws or fewer in all three of their matches in the group.

Leipzig’s matches in this competition aren’t seeing a lot of throws either. Their matches overall averaged 36.67 throws per game. This dropped to 36 when they played at the Red Bull Arena. When these teams last met at this ground, there was just 22 throws in the match as Leipzig ran out 2-1 victors.

Both teams finding the net also looks like a good bet here. Leipzig scored in all three of their group matches in this competition; including three against Real Madrid. Leipzig have also scored in their last 10 matches at this ground with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

City’s goalscoring prowess needs no introduction and they should find the net here. Marco Rose’s side have kept just two clean sheets in their last 10 matches and they should struggle to contain the visitors on Wednesday.

This one has the potential to be a goal fest. These sides were drawn in the same group in 2021 and one of the meetings ended 6-3. City missed a host of chances when they dropped points at the weekend and they will want to bounce back by being clinical here.

City’s last 10 matches are averaging three goals. Leipzig’s are averaging 3.3. We could easily see this longshot land if we get an early goal.

The required throws line for this longshot landed comfortably in the last meeting between the sides and looks solid here.