Odds shown as:

PSG v Bayern Munich Tips: Back the German juggernaut to lift the trophy in Lisbon

Robert Lewandowski has registered two or more shots on target in all nine of his Champions League matches this season
Robert Lewandowski has registered two or more shots on target in all nine of his Champions League matches this season

It’s the big one, the Champions League final and this season’s curtain-closer looks an exciting affair, with German juggernaut Bayern Munich taking on Thomas Tuchel’s Paris Saint-Germain in Lisbon. 

It's a tale of two German coaches, with Tuchel taking on Hansi Flick and a win here would really cap off a good season for both after their successes in the domestic league and cup competitions. Bayern have won a record ten consecutive games in the Champions League this season and are the 11/10 favourites to win here inside 90 minutes.

PSG cruised through their semi-final against RB Leipzig but can be backed here at 3.2 for the win which would be their first in the Champions League. Keylor Navas is still a doubt for the Parisians and will be assessed before the game, however Verratti is back available for selection after coming off the bench against Leipzig and should be back to full fitness.

For Bayern, Benjamin Pavard has now recovered from injury, although it remains to be seen whether he will come back in at right-back for Joshua Kimmich who could slot back into midfield. Jerome Boateng went off at half-time against Lyon with a knock but is expected to be available and continue at the heart of the defence here. 

The game can be seen on BT Sport as well as on YouTube kicking off at 20:00 on Sunday. I’ve picked out three bets I like the look of for the game which could be a thriller if Bayern’s 8-2 victory over Barcelona last week is anything to go by.

Bayern Munich to win - 2pts @ 11/10 Betfair Exchange

Mbappe & Lewandowski 2+ shots on target - 2pts @ 3/1 Betfair Sportsbook

Di Maria & Muller 1+ shots on target, Boateng & Bernat to be carded - 0.5pts @ 50/1 Paddy Power

PSG v Bayern Munich Tip #1
20:00
Bayern Munich to win
You have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the last time the favourite for the final did not lift the trophy Bayern have been phenomenal this season and have the competition's top-scorer in Robert Lewandowski with 15 goals PSG could be exposed by the high press and intensity of Bayern
Odds correct as of 2020-08-21 17:00 Odds subject to change.

For my first selection in Sunday’s final I’m backing the force that is Bayern Munich to win the game at the price of 11/10. I backed Hansi Flicks’s side against Barcelona last week in the 8-2 thrashing, and while I don’t think this victory will be by such a large margin, I do think they have enough to overcome PSG here. 

The high press that Bayern apply is similar to that of Atalanta which caused Paris Saint-Germain plenty of problems in their quarter-final victory which came in the dying embers of the game.  

You have to go back all the way to 2012 to find the last time that the favourites for the Champions League final did not lift the trophy, and further to that four of the last five favourites have won inside 90 minutes by a margin of two goals or more.

I see Bayern scoring early here and sitting back a little more than they have in other games this season. Their in-form attackers Robert Lewandowski and Serge Gnabry have been on fire of late, and with players such as Manuel Neuer and Thomas Muller well experienced in these sort of situations I think they could give Die Roten the edge.

PSG v Bayern Munich Tip #2
20:00
Mbappe & Lewandowski both to have 2+ shots on target
Lewandowski has registered two or more shots on target in all nine of his CL games this season Mbappe to have 2+ shots on target has landed in his last four games in the competition 
Odds correct as of 2020-08-21 17:00 Odds subject to change.

Next up I’m backing both Kylian Mbappe and Robert Lewandowski to have two or more shots on target at 3/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook. At first glance you might think that’s a little short for a multi with two players to both have two or more shots on target, but this selection really comes down to the data behind the pairing.

Kylian Mbappe has registered 17 shots on target in nine appearances in this season’s Champions League. Five of those have been starts and four have been when he has come off the bench. The selection of two or more on target has landed in each of his last four games in the CL and that includes games against Real Madrid, Dortmund, Leipzig and Atalanta. 

If Robert Lewandowski scores a brace in the game he will equal Cristiano Ronaldo’s record of 17 goals in a single Champions League campaign. He’s been phenomenal this season and has 55 goals in all competitions. The Pole has averaged an incredible 3.6 shots on target per game in the Champions League in this season and I can tell you that him to have two or more on target has landed in all nine of his CL matches. I think we could see goals in this final with two entertaining teams and these two players looked primed to be at the heart of the action.

PSG v Bayern Munich Tip #3
20:00
Di Maria & Muller 1+ shot on target, Bernat & Boateng to be carded
Di Maria has registered 2+ shots on target in all three games he has played since lockdown  Muller has 23 goals in the knockout phase of the competition  Juan Bernat has been booked in two of his last four games Jermoe Boateng could struggle with the pace of Mbappe. Ageing legs and booked five times in 23 in the Bundesliga this season.
Odds correct as of 2020-08-21 17:00 Odds subject to change.

It’s been a long old season and I’m hoping I can end things with a touch of magic with a 50/1 longshot from Paddy Power. I’m going for Angel Di Maria and Thomas Muller to have one or more shots on target, with both Juan Bernat and Jerome Boateng to be carded. 

I tipped Argentinian Di Maria to have two or more shots on target in the semi-final v Leipzig and he duly obliged at a lovely price of 5/1. He has played three times since the resumption of football after the lockdown and he’s actually registered two or more shots on target in all three of those games.

Thomas Muller is a player who seems to come alive in the knockout phase of the Champions League. He has 23 goals in 47 knockout games with only Messi and Ronaldo having more in the competition’s history. He’s registered nine shots on target in nine games in this season’s competition and I’m backing him to have another in Lisbon.

Juan Bernat has been booked in two of his last four games for Paris Saint-Germain. He’s most likely to be at left back and I think he could have his hands full with Serge Gnabry in full flight running at him. 

Jerome Boateng came off with a knock in the semi-final but is tipped to be fit here and that angle only adds to my hypothesis of him being carded. He’s now 31 years old and I think he could struggle against the pace of Kylian Mbappe. He was booked against Barcelona in the 8-2 romping and has received five yellow cards in 23 starts in the Bundesliga this season.

Good luck to those who are following and thank you to all who have read my column throughout the season. As always please remember only bet what you can afford and always gamble responsibly.

 

Free Bets
Advert Disclaimer
Bettingodds.com is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Bettingodds.com accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.
Money Back As CASH Up To £20 (APP Only)
#AD New customers only. Deposit £20 using card or Trustly. Up to your first £20 of losses will be refunded as CASH within 24 hours of qualifying bet having been settled. T&Cs apply
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+. Play Safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake,  min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after  settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after  the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.
Welcome Offer
#AD Open Account Offer. Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code ‘100BET365’ can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. 18+ begambleaware.org.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets + 100 Free Spins
#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 at odds 2.00+ within 7 days, no cashout. Get 3x £10 Free Bets, set events at odds 2.00+. Plus 100 Free Spins, no wagering. Free Bets and Spins expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. Please gamble responsibly.
Bet £10 On Football & Get £40 In Free Bets + £10 Bonus
#AD £/€10 deposit using promo code "10FREE" - Minimum stake £/€10 at odds of 1/2 (1.5) - Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days - Free bet stakes not included in returns - Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager the bonus amount 40 times within 14 days • Casino Bonus expires after 60 days - Withdrawal restrictions, payment methods, country & full T&Cs apply
Bet £10 Get £30 + 30 Free Spins
#AD New UK & NI customers only. Promo code SPORTS60. Deposit and place first sports bet of £10+ in one transaction, at odds of Evens (2.0)+, settled within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £30 in Free Bets credited within 48 hours of bet settlement. 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS validation may be required. Max 30 Free Spins on Blue Wizard at £0.10 per spin. 7-day expiry. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet £20 & Get It Back As CASH If It Loses
#AD New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any Football market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using cards will qualify for this promotion. T&Cs apply.
Get Up To £100 In Free Bets
#AD New customer offer. Place 5 x £10 or more bets to receive £20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange bets excluded. Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD. New members. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook, placed & settled at 1.5 min odds within 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. 2 non-withdrawable £10 Free Bet Tokens: accept in 7 days, valid for 7 days from acceptance (ex. E/Ws & Multiples), stakes not returned. Click here for Rules & Exclusions. Bet Responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. 18+
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD Min stake £10. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). First bet only. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. Online UK customers only. 30 days to qualify for £20 in Free Bets. 18+. T&Cs apply

Bet £10 On Football & Get £50 In Free Bets

#Ad. 18+ Playsafe. Place a pre-match £10 bet on any Football market between 2nd December and 24th December, at min. odds 1/2 (1.5) — get a total of £50 in free bets, £30 on bet settlement and an additional £20 the following day. Your qualifying bet must settle by Friday 23:59, 24th December. Only deposits via Cards will qualify (Apple Pay deposit excluded). T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly. 18+ begambleaware.org

Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets + 100 Free Spins

#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 at odds 2.00+ within 7 days, no cashout. Get 3x £10 Free Bets, set events at odds 2.00+. Plus 100 Free Spins, no wagering. Free Bets and Spins expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. Please gamble responsibly.

AC Milan v Liverpool Bet £10 & Get £20 + a £5 Free bet in Play when you bet £5 on Bet Builder

#Ad. 18+. UK/IRE mobile customers only. Min Odds of (2/1). Place a bet of £/€5 on any Bet Builder in the AC Milan v Liverpool match on 07/12/2021. Free Bet can be used on any in-play single for the same match. One qualifying bet per match (first bet placed). Free/void/cashed out bets won’t qualify. Free Bet will be credited after kick off and expires 7 days later. T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org