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PSG v Bayern Munich Tips: Back the German juggernaut to lift the trophy in Lisbon

Robert Lewandowski has registered two or more shots on target in all nine of his Champions League matches this season
Robert Lewandowski has registered two or more shots on target in all nine of his Champions League matches this season

It’s the big one, the Champions League final and this season’s curtain-closer looks an exciting affair, with German juggernaut Bayern Munich taking on Thomas Tuchel’s Paris Saint-Germain in Lisbon. 

It's a tale of two German coaches, with Tuchel taking on Hansi Flick and a win here would really cap off a good season for both after their successes in the domestic league and cup competitions. Bayern have won a record ten consecutive games in the Champions League this season and are the 11/10 favourites to win here inside 90 minutes.

PSG cruised through their semi-final against RB Leipzig but can be backed here at 3.2 for the win which would be their first in the Champions League. Keylor Navas is still a doubt for the Parisians and will be assessed before the game, however Verratti is back available for selection after coming off the bench against Leipzig and should be back to full fitness.

For Bayern, Benjamin Pavard has now recovered from injury, although it remains to be seen whether he will come back in at right-back for Joshua Kimmich who could slot back into midfield. Jerome Boateng went off at half-time against Lyon with a knock but is expected to be available and continue at the heart of the defence here. 

The game can be seen on BT Sport as well as on YouTube kicking off at 20:00 on Sunday. I’ve picked out three bets I like the look of for the game which could be a thriller if Bayern’s 8-2 victory over Barcelona last week is anything to go by.

Bayern Munich to win - 2pts @ 11/10 Betfair Exchange

Mbappe & Lewandowski 2+ shots on target - 2pts @ 3/1 Betfair Sportsbook

Di Maria & Muller 1+ shots on target, Boateng & Bernat to be carded - 0.5pts @ 50/1 Paddy Power

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For my first selection in Sunday’s final I’m backing the force that is Bayern Munich to win the game at the price of 11/10. I backed Hansi Flicks’s side against Barcelona last week in the 8-2 thrashing, and while I don’t think this victory will be by such a large margin, I do think they have enough to overcome PSG here. 

The high press that Bayern apply is similar to that of Atalanta which caused Paris Saint-Germain plenty of problems in their quarter-final victory which came in the dying embers of the game.  

You have to go back all the way to 2012 to find the last time that the favourites for the Champions League final did not lift the trophy, and further to that four of the last five favourites have won inside 90 minutes by a margin of two goals or more.

I see Bayern scoring early here and sitting back a little more than they have in other games this season. Their in-form attackers Robert Lewandowski and Serge Gnabry have been on fire of late, and with players such as Manuel Neuer and Thomas Muller well experienced in these sort of situations I think they could give Die Roten the edge.

Next up I’m backing both Kylian Mbappe and Robert Lewandowski to have two or more shots on target at 3/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook. At first glance you might think that’s a little short for a multi with two players to both have two or more shots on target, but this selection really comes down to the data behind the pairing.

Kylian Mbappe has registered 17 shots on target in nine appearances in this season’s Champions League. Five of those have been starts and four have been when he has come off the bench. The selection of two or more on target has landed in each of his last four games in the CL and that includes games against Real Madrid, Dortmund, Leipzig and Atalanta. 

If Robert Lewandowski scores a brace in the game he will equal Cristiano Ronaldo’s record of 17 goals in a single Champions League campaign. He’s been phenomenal this season and has 55 goals in all competitions. The Pole has averaged an incredible 3.6 shots on target per game in the Champions League in this season and I can tell you that him to have two or more on target has landed in all nine of his CL matches. I think we could see goals in this final with two entertaining teams and these two players looked primed to be at the heart of the action.

It’s been a long old season and I’m hoping I can end things with a touch of magic with a 50/1 longshot from Paddy Power. I’m going for Angel Di Maria and Thomas Muller to have one or more shots on target, with both Juan Bernat and Jerome Boateng to be carded. 

I tipped Argentinian Di Maria to have two or more shots on target in the semi-final v Leipzig and he duly obliged at a lovely price of 5/1. He has played three times since the resumption of football after the lockdown and he’s actually registered two or more shots on target in all three of those games.

Thomas Muller is a player who seems to come alive in the knockout phase of the Champions League. He has 23 goals in 47 knockout games with only Messi and Ronaldo having more in the competition’s history. He’s registered nine shots on target in nine games in this season’s competition and I’m backing him to have another in Lisbon.

Juan Bernat has been booked in two of his last four games for Paris Saint-Germain. He’s most likely to be at left back and I think he could have his hands full with Serge Gnabry in full flight running at him. 

Jerome Boateng came off with a knock in the semi-final but is tipped to be fit here and that angle only adds to my hypothesis of him being carded. He’s now 31 years old and I think he could struggle against the pace of Kylian Mbappe. He was booked against Barcelona in the 8-2 romping and has received five yellow cards in 23 starts in the Bundesliga this season.

Good luck to those who are following and thank you to all who have read my column throughout the season. As always please remember only bet what you can afford and always gamble responsibly.

 

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