Projection: Which three teams will win the play-offs in the Football League?
We at BettingOdds.com have analysed the head-to-head records of all sides competing in the Championship, League One and League Two play-offs this season to determine which three sides from the 12 teams involved will be promoted from their individual leagues.
The projection determines that Swansea, Sunderland and Forest Green Rovers will all be promoted from the Championship, League One and League Two respectively.
The method we used to project the play-off winners was as follows:
- For all first and second legs of the play-off semi-finals we analysed the all-time head-to-head league records between each competing side at the home team’s stadium for each respective leg.
- We then added together each side's points-per-game record as both the home and away side to reveal the aggregate score, with the victor advancing to the play-off final.
- To determine the winner of the final, we analysed the two competing sides' all time head-to-head record in the league and play-offs against one another and the promoted side was the team with the best points-per-game record.
The results are as follows...
Championship
Bournemouth vs Brentford
Championship Play-off Semi-Final First Leg:
Bournemouth 1.75 - 1.04 Brentford
Championship Play-off Semi-Final Second Leg:
Brentford 1.73 - 0.9 Bournemouth
Final Aggregate PPG:
Bournemouth 2.65 - 2.77 Brentford
Barnsley vs Swansea
Championship Play-off Semi-Final First Leg:
Barnsley 1.8 - 0.94 Swansea
Championship Play-off Semi-Final Second Leg:
Swansea 2.26 - 0.63 Barnsley
Final Aggregate PPG:
Barnsley 2.43 - 3.2 Swansea
Championship Play-off Final
Brentford 1.33 - 1.4 Swansea
League One
Oxford United vs Blackpool
League One Play-off Semi-Final First Leg:
Oxford United 1.59 - 1.24 Blackpool
League One Play-off Semi-Final Second Leg:
Blackpool 1.88 - 1 Oxford United
Final Aggregate PPG:
Oxford United 2.59 - 3.12 Blackpool
Lincoln City vs Sunderland
League One Play-off Semi-Final First Leg:
Lincoln City 1.4 - 1.4 Sunderland
League One Play-off Semi-Final Second Leg:
Sunderland 1.6 - 1 Lincoln City
Final Aggregate PPG:
Lincoln City 2.4 - 3 Sunderland
League One Play-off Final
Blackpool 1.23 - 1.48 Sunderland
League Two
Newport County vs Forest Green
League Two Play-off Semi-Final First Leg:
Newport County 0.33 - 2.33 Forest Green
League Two Play-off Semi-Final Second Leg:
Forest Green 0.5 - 2 Newport County
Final Aggregate PPG:
Newport County 2.33 - 2.83 Forest Green
Tranmere vs Morecambe
League Two Play-off Semi-Final First Leg:
Tranmere 2 - 1 Morecambe
League Two Play-off Semi-Final Second Leg:
Morecambe 0.33 - 2.33 Tranmere
Final Aggregate PPG:
Tranmere 4.33 - 1.33 Morecambe
League Two Play-off Final
Forest Green 1.67 - 1.17 Tranmere