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Is Bruno Fernandes is overpriced in the Premier League top scorer betting?

Premier League Top Scorer Betting: The Portugal star has seven league goals so far in 20/21
Premier League Top Scorer Betting: The Portugal star has seven league goals so far in 20/21

Each week I like to take a closer look at various top goalscorer markets to try and snaffle out some potential value, but this time I'm focussing on a specific player in the Premier League; one who has massively impressed since arriving on English shores at the start of the year and could represent great value for an each-way bet at 33/1.

Manchester United playmaker Bruno Fernandes has been a revelation since signing for the Red Devils back in January, and his statistics are quite something. Since January, Fernandes has been directly involved in 25 goals in 23 top flight matches, with his latest contribution coming in Sunday's dramatic 3-2 win over Southampton - a match United found themselves losing 2-0 at half-time. 

The Portugal international has so far scored seven goals in this season's edition of the Premier League, alongside providing a further three assists for his teammates. While the 26-year-old is often referred to as a 'penalty merchant' due to the high volume of spot-kicks he has converted - 12 in all competitions since since signing for United - eight of his 15 league goals for the Old Trafford outfit have come from open-play or courtesy of a free-kick. 

Premier League top scorer betting

Indeed, it is Fernandes' ability from 12 yards that has seen him rise to the upper echelons in the Premier League's top goalscorer chart this term.

The former Sporting CP midfielder's seven-goal haul (three penalties) sees him sit behind only Harry Kane (7 goals), Mohamed Salah (8 goals), Jamie Vardy (8 goals), Son Heung-min (9 goals) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (10 goals) after 10 games - each of whom are deemed as their respective side's main striker or attacking threat - unlike Fernandes, whose primary role is to create chances in United's midfield before focussing on scoring goals himself. 

This season more than ever we are seeing a huge rise in penalties in the Premier League, with VAR's constant involvement in games boosting the amount of spot-kicks awarded week after week, and it is players like Fernandes who are the main beneficiaries.

Already this season there have been a total of 47 penalties in England's top table, with only Leicester (8) and Fulham (5) awarded more than Manchester United (4). It was the same situation during Project Restart in the summer, and while we can all agree that the vast majority of these decisions being made are hilariously soft and somewhat ridiculous, Bruno Fernandes will perhaps feel a lot differently as it will only serve to boost his already-impressive tally in front of goal.

Fernandes' odds in the Premier League top scorer betting have fluctuated throughout the early stages of the campaign. Interestingly, he actually started the season at a shorter price than he is now at 22/1 with Paddy Power, before drifting to as high as 50/1 and then 40/1 in early November. 

His odds now stand at 33/1, however, and although it will be a tall order for the playmaker to keep up with the division's most lethal marksmen from now until the end of May, there could still be value in backing him each-way in this market. 

This can often prove profitable for punters looking to back an outsider at higher odds, without their chosen player having to actually finish the season with the most goals. Last season Southampton's Danny Ings notched 22 league goals and therefore finished joint-second in the race for the Golden Boot, behind Jamie Vardy who scored one more with 23.

However, you'd have still won your bet had you have backed the Saints front man with an each-way bet at odds of 200/1, as these wagers pay out if the player you've bet on finishes in the top four, not just if they win. In this instance, a £5 e/w bet on Ings would have returned a healthy £245 profit (bet paid out at 1/4 of the odds).

Brunoched

While Fernandes's odds aren't quite as high as Ings's were in 19/20, a £5 each-way (£10 in total) bet on the Portuguese would pay just over £46 should he finish in the top four for goals scored, and £216 if he outscored his rivals and claimed the elusive Golden Boot at the end of the season - not too shabby.

There is, of course, still a long way to go until the campaign draws to a close but early indications suggest that Fernandes could be a good each-way bet in this market, and his astonishing goal involvement record at Old Trafford coupled with the amount of penalties we are seeing being given only further boost the hypothesis that the United talisman is overpriced at 33/1.

It is a price that will certainly shorten soon enough if the trend continues...

Premier League top scorer odds

Mohamed Salah
WIN PROB: 28%
1
£20 FREE BET
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5/2
REVEAL OFFER
9/4
£30 FREE BET
9/4
£20 FREE BET
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Romelu Lukaku
WIN PROB: 22%
1
£20 FREE BET
7/2
REVEAL OFFER
3/1
£30 FREE BET
3/1
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Cristiano Ronaldo
WIN PROB: 18%
1
£30 FREE BET
9/2
REVEAL OFFER
9/2
£20 FREE BET
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7/2
£20 FREE BET
3/1
£100 FREE BET
3/1
£40 FREE BET
5/2
Jamie Vardy
WIN PROB: 6%
1
£30 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
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Harry Kane
WIN PROB: 5%
1
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Michail Antonio
WIN PROB: 3%
1
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Sadio Mane
WIN PROB: 2%
1
£20 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
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Pierre Emerick Aubameyang
WIN PROB: 3%
1
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£30 FREE BET
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Bruno Fernandes
WIN PROB: 2%
1
£20 FREE BET
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Dominic Calvert-Lewin
WIN PROB: 2%
1
£20 FREE BET
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Roberto Firminio
WIN PROB: 2%
Son Heung-min
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Diogo Jota
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Raul Jiminez
WIN PROB: 2%
Ferran Torres
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Mason Greenwood
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Danny Ings
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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£30 FREE BET
Gabriel Jesus
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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£30 FREE BET
Odsonne Edouard
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Ivan Toney
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£20 FREE BET
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Neal Maupay
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Raheem Sterling
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Callum Wilson
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Hwang Hee-Chan
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Alexandra Lacazette
WIN PROB: 1%
Timo Werner
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Kai Havertz
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Wilfried Zaha
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Richarlison
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Riyad Mahrez
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Edinson Cavani
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Raul Jimenez
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Roberto Firmino
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£20 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
Teemu Pukki
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Adam Armstrong
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Carlos Vinicius
WIN PROB: 1%
Patrick Bamford
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Marcus Rashford
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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£20 FREE BET
Ollie Watkins
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Ilkay Gundagan
WIN PROB: 1%
Kelechi Iheanacho
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£20 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
Ismaila Sarr
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£30 FREE BET
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Jadon Sancho
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£20 FREE BET
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Joshua King
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Alexandre Lacazette
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Anthony Martial
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Chris Wood
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Jack Grealish
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Patson Daka
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Phil Foden
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Che Adams
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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£30 FREE BET
Christian Pulisic
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£20 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
Jarrod Bowen
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£30 FREE BET
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Gabriel Martinelli
WIN PROB: 0%
Marcus Forss
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Juan Camillo Hernandez
WIN PROB: 0%
Paul Pogba
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Kevin De Bruyne
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£20 FREE BET
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Nicolas Pepe
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Harvey Barnes
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Jack Harrison
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Joelinton
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Wesley Moraes
WIN PROB: 0%
Bukayo Saka
WIN PROB: 0%
James Ward-Prowse
WIN PROB: 0%
Allan Saint-Maximin
WIN PROB: 0%
Dane Scarlett
WIN PROB: 0%
Salomon Rondon
WIN PROB: 0%
Bryan Mbeumo
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£40 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
Mason Mount
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Dele Alli
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£20 FREE BET
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Fabio Silva
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Pedro Neto
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£40 FREE BET
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Christian Benteke
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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£40 FREE BET
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Danny Welbeck
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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