Premier League Top Scorer Betting: Aubameyang continues to drift after nightmare start

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s nightmare start to the season continued at the weekend, as the 31-year-old failed to find the net once again during Arsenal’s disastrous 3-0 defeat to Aston Villa.

The Gabon international has been a revelation since joining the club from Borussia Dortmund in 2018, scoring 74 goals for the north London side in all competitions. During his first full season at the Emirates, he shared the Premier League Golden Boot award with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane after netting 22 league goals, and last season he was again prevalent, scoring another 22 goals in the English top-flight although sadly it wasn’t enough to clinch him the Golden Boot as Leicester’s Jamie Vardy notched one more with 23. 

Aubameyang’s consistency throughout the last two seasons has greatly improved Arsenal and added much-needed potency to an attack that has for long been described as sterile and toothless. He is already a modern-era club legend and in September committed himself to the Gunners by penning a three-year contract extension. This season, though, Aubameyang has struggled to find the net and currently has just two goals to show for his eight league appearances.

During Sunday’s loss to Aston Villa, the former Dortmund striker failed to register a single shot on target. In fact, he has only managed 10 SoT this season overall. Part of this is down to the fact that Arteta wants his forward players to become more defensively-minded and carry out the gritty work when his team are being attacked, and not just focus on scoring goals when his side are the ones doing the attacking.

Aubameyang has been deployed as more of a left-sided forward in recent years, but under Arteta he is now used as more of an up-and-down left-winger in the Spaniard's 3-4-3 formation to accommodate the misfiring Alexandre Lacazette or Eddie Nketiah through the middle. The 31-year-old’s price in the Premier League top scorer betting market has fluctuated throughout the early stages of the season, but it has now drifted to 25/1 after Sunday’s blank which is a far cry from the 4/1 he could be found at prior to the season starting in September. 

While a surge in performance and subsequent upcoming flurry of goals is never to be ruled out where players like Aubameyang are concerned, it does currently look unlikely that he will challenge the current front-runners for the Golden Boot this term. Arsenal’s number 14 is already six goals behind Son Heung-min, Jamie Vardy, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Mohamed Salah, while his counterpart at north London rivals Tottenham, Harry Kane, is five goals ahead of him with seven to his name at this stage.

Consistency still needed for Bamford, but he has shown top-flight quality so far

Leeds United’s Patrick Bamford is another name present when you look at the Premier League top scorer chart at the moment. The 27-year-old continues to prove critics wrong by finding the net on a regular basis this time out, and on Saturday he notched his seventh of the campaign away at Crystal Palace, as Leeds were beaten 4-1 for the second week on the trot at Selhurst Park. 

It could - and should - have been a brace for Bamford in Croydon, too, had VAR not ruled out his well-taken chip in the first-half due to his arm being in an offside position but the rest of his body being completely onside. Had that decision been correctly called, Bamford would be level on goals with the division’s leading marksmen heading into the international break, but he is still only one goal shy of that tally and could therefore be worth a consideration for a bet on the Golden Boot market if you’re searching for a player with slightly larger odds. 

The former Chelsea man is 25/1 in the betting at the moment, the same odds as Aubameyang, which I find a little bizarre given the fact he has five goals on the Arsenal man. The doubts around Bamford’s consistency still remain, however, and there have been times - namely against Leicester last week - where he has squandered good opportunities in front of goal. But, there is no doubt that he is working on that and his performance against Palace was impressive despite the rest of his side really struggling to match the Eagles blow for blow. An each-way play on Bamford at 25s could prove profitable come May.

Watkins proving his weight in gold for Dean Smith's resurgent Villa

Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins is another player who has taken to the top-flight seamlessly, with six goals to show for his efforts so far. The 25-year-old joined the Villans from Brentford for £28m in the summer and there were initial doubts over whether the club had overpaid for him given his lack of Premier League experience. Indeed, Watkins has been magnificent spearheading a Villa side who have really impressed so far, and as a result his odds in the top scorer market have been cut significantly from 66/1 (pre-season price) to 20/1. 

With so much creative talent in Villa’s side - the likes of Jack Grealish, Ross Barkley, John McGinn and Trezeguet - Watkins should have the service he requires to continue this fine goalscoring form all season long. The former Exeter City trainee will be desperate to impress Gareth Southgate ahead of next summer’s European Championships, which will no doubt provide him with an added incentive, while nobody would ridicule Villa for believing that they have a genuine shot at Europe this season after their explosive start and the way they’ve played against both Liverpool and Arsenal so far.

Watkins is front and centre in their potential to do so, and is another player I’d be backing over the out-of-sorts Aubameyang as we delve deeper into this perplexing campaign full of twists, turns and everything in between.