Premier League Top Half Odds: Can Newcastle finish in the Top-10 this season?

As we approach the final furlong of the Premier League season, things are looking incredibly tight in mid-table. There are plenty of sides who would love to finish in the top-half of the table and we’ve taken a look at the odds to do so. We’ve also taken a look ahead to the remaining fixtures of the top-half contenders and have recommended who we think could be a good bet.

The Current Table

As things stand on April 21, Wolves find themselves eighth in the table with a six-point gap between themselves and Leicester in ninth. Despite having played one game more than the Foxes, one would expect Bruno Lage’s side to be comfortable top-half finishers this season. They are priced at 1/250 to do so and still have home fixtures against Norwich and Brighton remaining.

Leicester and Brighton occupy ninth and tenth at the time of writing, although as you can see below, there is quite a variance in how many matches the sides around them have played with some as many as 33, and some as few as 31. Newcastle (11th), Brighton (12th), Southampton (13th), Crystal Palace (14th) and Aston Villa (15th), are all still in contention to finish in tenth or higher.

The Betting

At the time of writing, bet365 have seven teams priced between 1/5 and 8/1 to finish in the top half of the table this season. Effectively, just two of those seven will finish in those spaces.

The remaining fixtures

Leicester - 1/5

Brendan Rodgers’ side conceded a late equaliser at Everton on Wednesday which all but ended their hopes of qualification for Europe through their top-flight finishing place. However, they could still qualify for the Europa League if they managed to lift the Europa Conference League Trophy. It’s worth noting that Leicester have played two games fewer than the three sides behind them in the table, but are still to face Spurs and Chelsea away as well as two tough games with Roma which may take a little out of them.

• (H) - Aston Villa
• (A) - Spurs
• (H) - Everton
• (H) - Norwich
• (A) - Watford
• (A) - Chelsea
• (H) - Southampton

Brighton - 9/4 

There is then quite a significant gap in the market to the next shortest-priced team in Brighton at 9/4. The Seagulls have claimed victories at Arsenal and Spurs in the last few weeks and are on-course for their highest Premier League finish, after finishing 15th, 17th, 15th and 16th in the last four seasons. 

• (H) - Southampton
• (A) - Wolves
• (H) - Man Utd
• (A) - Leeds
• (H) - West Ham

Crystal Palace - 5/2

It’s been a good first season in charge of Crystal Palace for Patrick Vieira with some pundits predicting he would be the first managerial casualty this campaign. The Eagles certainly have one of the more favourable run-ins of the teams around them with only one fixture against a ‘big-six’ side in out of form Manchester United. 

• (H) - Leeds
• (A) - Southampton
• (H) - Watford
• (A) - Aston Villa
• (A) - Everton
• (H) - Man Utd

Southampton - 10/3

In their two full seasons under Ralph Hasenhuttl Saints have finished 11th and 15th. In their last six matches they play four of the teams around them in the table: Brighton, Palace, Brentford and then Leicester on the final day. 

• (A) - Burnley
• (A) - Brighton 
• (H) - Crystal Palace
• (A) - Brentford
• (H) - Liverpool
• (A) - Leicester 

Aston Villa - 10/3

Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa may be 15th in the table but just five points separate themselves and Leicester in ninth. Villa still have to play Burnley twice and have two games in-hand on some of the sides above. Gerrard takes his side to Manchester City on the last day of the season where he’d love to pick up a result and help his beloved Liverpool claim what could be a dramatic final day title triumph. 

• (A) - Leicester
• (H) - Norwich 
• (A) - Burnley
• (H) - Liverpool
• (H) - Crystal Palace
• (H) - Burnley 
• (A) - Manchester City

Brentford - 7/1

It’s been a solid showing from Brentford this season with the 4-1 victory at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago a particular highlight for Thomas Frank and their fans. The Bees are in good form at the moment and have won five of their last six league games, but do have two tricky fixtures next against Spurs and Manchester United.

• (H) - Spurs
• (A) - Man Utd
• (H) - Southampton 
• (A) - Everton
• (H) - Leeds

Newcastle - 8/1

It’s been a remarkable turnaround at Newcastle with the Magpies currently sitting on 40 points after having just ten to their name at Christmas. Eddie Howe deserves some credit for the job he has done in a short space of time, although they do have a tricky run-in with tough games against Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal.

• (A) - Norwich
• (H) - Liverpool
• (A) - Man City
• (H) - Arsenal
• (A) - Burnley

Who to back?

Before their 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace on Wednesday evening, Newcastle were priced at 12/1 for a top-half finish. There’s no denying there’s some serious momentum and togetherness in this side at the moment with six straight victories at St James Park. It’s astonishing to see if you look at the Premier League table since the turn of the year, Newcastle would be second with 29 points from just 14 matches! 

Fixtures against Norwich and Burnley look very winnable for Howe’s side and they are certainly worth some consideration here at 8/1. However, with games against three of the top-five to come and other teams having games in hand it does spark the question of whether the value has gone here. If you are going to get on, I would do so now before their trip to Norwich at the weekend with bet365 going 8/1 and others such as Paddy Power 5/1.

Brentford at 7/1 with William Hill could also be a potential wise-play here in our opinion. They come into the final stretch in really good form and have proved they can mix it against the big boys with wins against Arsenal and Chelsea this season as well as a point against Liverpool. Frank’s men have very winnable home fixtures against Southampton and Leeds as well as two trips to Everton and Manchester United who have been in uninspiring form lately.