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Premier League Top Goalscorer Tips: Three selections to consider for the Golden Boot

Raheem Sterling has now scored 55 league goals in the last three seasons
Raheem Sterling has now scored 55 league goals in the last three seasons

Jamie Vardy scooped the 2019/20 Golden Boot award with 23 goals, one ahead of Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and with the new Premier League season nearly upon us, I’ve had a look into the top goalscorer market to see who will potentially come out on top. 

It’s also worth noting here that most bookmakers are paying four each-way places on this market, meaning if your player finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th you will be paid out at a quarter of the original price. There’s been some big price places in recent years, such as Danny Ings at 200/1 finishing third last season and Sadio Mane finishing third in 2018/19 at 50/1. Picking an each-way selection at a bigger price can often be a nice way into the market and I’ve picked out three here who I think should do well this season.

Football Tips

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 6/1 (bet365)

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the third-favourite in this market, priced at 6/1 with Stoke-based bookmaker bet365 - behind Mohammed Salah and Harry Kane - and in my opinion he should be favourite. 

No Premier League player has scored more goals than Aubameyang has since he joined the club in January 2018. In his first full season at the Gunners he was the joint winner of the Golden Boot with 22 goals, alongside Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane before going on to finish just one behind Vardy in the most recent campaign, again with a total of 22.

He’s proved that he’s a man for the big occasions, with goals in the FA Cup final helping his side lift the trophy for the 14th time in 2019/20. Mikel Arteta seems to be getting the best out of him and with so much focus coming down the left for Arsenal through Kieran Tierney or Bukayo Saka, we are seeing that ‘Henry-likeness’ from Aubameyang as he cuts inside onto his favoured right foot.

He is also the penalty-taker for the club which Is a key angle here. I’d be optimistic that he would score a good five for Arsenal in the coming season with VAR. The Gabon international is as clinical as they come and if he remains in a positive headspace like he is at the moment, I see no reason why he cannot go on and break his own record of 22 in the last two seasons. If I was to have any of the front three in the market it would be Aubameyang at 6/1.

Raheem Sterling 14/1 each-way (BetVictor)

As I mentioned earlier picking an each-way selection can often be a profitable strategy to employ in the Premier League top-scorer betting market, with four places available from the bookmakers at 1/4 of the odds. The first of two that have caught my eye at double-figure prices this season is Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling.

Sterling finished last season with 20 goals and as the fourth-top scorer and gave punters each-way profit priced at 14/1. He’s that same price again this year and my key angle with the England star is his improvement. Every season he seems to get better and better and he has now scored over 100 goals in all competitions for Manchester City. The 25-year-old has become a clever forward who can score goals from 25 yards, or from a tap-in via a clever run he has made.

Yes we know that Pep likes to share the goals around his team but I think that unlike some players when it comes to goalscoring, Raheem has no ceiling on how high he can go. A good example of this ceiling is how Sterling actually now has four Premier League hat-tricks, more than Didier Drogba. His workrate, desire and maturity is clear to see and at age of 25 I believe he can get even better. 

In the last three seasons Sterling has scored 18, 17, and 20 goals and if he hits 20 again this time out I’m confident he will be in the top four scorers in the league. There’s doubts over the fitness of Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero, who both picked up serious injuries this calendar year and with Jamie Vardy not getting any younger I think it paves the way for Sterling to step up and finish in the top four scorers come the end of the season.

Calvert-Lewin 80/1

Rounding off my trio of suggested selections is Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The Toffees front man scored an impressive 13 league goals last season for an Everton side who struggled to a 12th place finish. Carlo Ancelotti has now had time to bring in recruitments, such as James Rodriguez and Abdoulaye Doucoure, and I see them finishing much higher this time round.

I put a lot of DLC’s improvement down to the guidance of Duncan Ferguson and I’m pleased he's been given his run in the side following some harsh criticism of the young man in recent years. Calvert-Lewin very much came of age last season and if he can carry on that steady improvement then I believe he can over-perform his odds of 80/1.

During last season the Englishman formed a good partnership with Richarlison, however it is Calvert-Lewin who plays predominantly through the middle and who the majority of chances fall at his feet (or head). He’s got plenty of players to provide him with service, such as Lucas Digne - who had more assists than any other player at Everton last season - and with Calvert-Lewin being particularly strong in the air, this suits him to a tee with so much of Everton’s attacking play coming via an aerial route. 

It’s always worth throwing a couple of darts in this market, with the 200/1 each-way selection of Danny Ings which placed last year showing just that. It’s a big ask for Dominic to raise his game to the next level by breaking into that 20 goals a season bracket, although it would not surprise me to see him push on and surpass last season’s tally of 13. I’ve seen a lot worse 80/1 shots...

Live scores

Mohamed Salah
WIN PROB: 20%
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Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
WIN PROB: 17%
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Harry Kane
WIN PROB: 11%
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Sadio Mane
WIN PROB: 8%
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Timo Werner
WIN PROB: 8%
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Jamie Vardy
WIN PROB: 7%
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Raheem Sterling
WIN PROB: 7%
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Danny Ings
WIN PROB: 6%
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Dominic Calvert-Lewin
WIN PROB: 6%
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Gabriel Jesus
WIN PROB: 5%
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Heung-min Son
WIN PROB: 4%
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Marcus Rashford
WIN PROB: 5%
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Anthony Martial
WIN PROB: 4%
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Alexandre Lacazette
WIN PROB: 3%
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Sergio Aguero
WIN PROB: 3%
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Mason Greenwood
WIN PROB: 2%
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Bruno Fernandes
WIN PROB: 2%
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Tammy Abraham
WIN PROB: 2%
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Roberto Firmino
WIN PROB: 2%
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Kevin de Bruyne
WIN PROB: 1%
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Callum Wilson
WIN PROB: 1%
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Hakim Ziyech
WIN PROB: 1%
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Kai Havertz
WIN PROB: 1%
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Michail Antonio
WIN PROB: 1%
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Rodrigo
WIN PROB: 1%
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Nicolas Pepe
WIN PROB: 1%
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James Rodriguez
WIN PROB: 1%
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Olivier Giroud
WIN PROB: 1%
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Bernardo Silva
WIN PROB: 0%
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Dele Alli
WIN PROB: 0%
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Dwight Gayle
WIN PROB: 0%
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Paul Pogba
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Charlie Austin
WIN PROB: 0%
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Each Way Terms
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-09-27 03:18 Odds subject to change.

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