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Premier League top-four betting: A look at the sides in contention as the season draws to a close

Premier League top-four betting: West Ham have an attractive run-in approaching
Premier League top-four betting: West Ham have an attractive run-in approaching

With only a maximum of five games left in the Premier League this season, and Manchester City having the division wrapped up - alongside Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham more or less certainties for relegation - the only question now left to answer is which sides will cement a top-four finish and qualify for next season’s Champions League. 

Currently just seven points separate fourth-place Chelsea with seventh-place Liverpool, with the Reds having a game in hand over their west London counterparts. Leicester, currently second, are just two points ahead of Chelsea and only five ahead of fifth-place West Ham at the time of writing. 

Recent Form

The Foxes were held to a 1-1 draw against 10-man Southampton on Friday evening in a game that would have pretty much guaranteed their position in the top-four had they have won. The race remains open as we enter the final furlong. 

West Ham came from a goal behind to beat Burnley 2-1 at Turf Moor last night in what could prove to be a huge victory for David Moyes’ side, following two disappointing defeats against Newcastle and London rivals Chelsea in the previous two weeks. It is a result which sees the Hammers jump back above Tottenham into fifth and keeps them very much in contention for a top-four finish.

Spurs, though, are also in the conversation as things stand following a romping 4-0 victory over basement boys Sheffield United on Sunday. Ryan Mason’s side are just five points shy of Chelsea and look to have improved under new management, winning their last two games, albeit against two of the division’s most out-of-form teams in Southampton and Sheffield United. 

Liverpool also remain in the hunt and have the ‘luxury’ of a game in hand over the others, after their clash with Manchester United was called off at the weekend because of protests at Old Trafford. The Reds must win that game to stand any chance of closing the gap this month, whenever it is rearranged for, but certainly need an up in performance if they are to do so following back-to-back 1-1 draws against Leeds and Newcastle. 

Last five PL results

(Most recent on the left)

Leicester - DWWLL

Chelsea - WWDWL

West Ham - WLLWW

Tottenham - WWDLD

Liverpool - DDWWW

Premier League top-four betting

Upcoming Fixtures

Leicester 

Newcastle (H)
Man Utd (A)
Chelsea (A)
Tottenham (H)

Chelsea

Man City (A)
Arsenal (H)
Leicester (H)
Aston Villa (A)

West Ham

Everton (H)
Brighton (A)
West Brom (A)
Southampton (H)

Tottenham

Leeds (A)
Wolves (H)
Aston Villa (H)
Leicester (A)

Liverpool

Southampton (H)
West Brom (A)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Man Utd (A, TBC)

On paper, it looks as though Leicester have the most challenging run-in approaching. Games against Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea will be really tough, while a resurgent Newcastle side could also cause them a few problems this coming weekend. 

If they can take at least five points from those games though, you’d feel confident in their ability to secure their top-four status. Indeed, with an FA Cup final against Chelsea also approaching, the key will be not to get too distracted to ensure they avoid letting their lofty position in the table slip, just like they did this time last season when they missed out on the top-four at the 11th hour after being cut into 1/3 to finish inside it near the end of the campaign.

Chelsea also have a job to do in the coming weeks. Alongside an FA Cup final, the Blues have fixtures against Man City, Arsenal, Leicester and Aston Villa in the Premier League, as well as the potential of a Champions League final should they beat Real Madrid in the second leg of their semi-final clash on Wednesday night. 

West Ham undoubtedly have the most attractive run-in on the face of it. Aside from their game with Everton this Sunday, the Hammers face three sides from the current bottom-six in Brighton, Southampton and West Brom. You’d certainly back them to take maximum points from those games, especially with all three of those sides having nothing to play for. 

Liverpool also have a fairly straightforward fixture list on the horizon with games against Southampton, Burnley, Crystal Palace and West Brom all more than winnable, though their rearranged clash with Manchester United could throw an unwelcome spanner into the works.

Tottenham’s run-in is a challenging one, with Leeds, Wolves, Villa and Leicester all left on the agenda. 

Premier League betting

BettingOdds Verdict

With all things considered, I fancy Leicester to cement their position into next season’s Champions League with a strong end to their campaign.

With Kelechi Iheanacho firing on all cylinders and James Maddison now back to fitness, I think the Foxes have enough about them to take at least five points from their remaining four matches. Alongside the cushion they already have over the chasing pack, that should prove to be enough. 

The fourth and final position really is a tricky one. On paper I have to feel confident in West Ham due to their run-in, though a lack of experience in this sort of position could end up costing them when it really matters. 

David Moyes’ side have continually proved that they are up to the challenge throughout the season, however, and if Jesse Lingard keeps scoring at the rate in which he has been in recent weeks - alongside the returning Michail Antonio also helping out in the goals department - there is every chance the east London side can go the distance.

At 4/1, West Ham’s price definitely offers the best value in the market given their approaching fixtures. 

Top-four odds

Chelsea
WIN PROB: 71%
1
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£40 FREE BET
1/3
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1/3
£30 FREE BET
1/3
Liverpool
WIN PROB: 62%
1
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4/7
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4/7
£40 FREE BET
1/2
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1/2
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4/9
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2021-05-14 04:20 Odds subject to change.
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