Premier League Top 4 Odds 22/23: Pressure on Arteta to qualify for the Champions League

The Premier League gets underway on 5 August, with Crystal Palace taking on Arsenal in the opening fixture at Selhurst Park. Today at BettingOdds.com, we’ve decided to take a look at the ‘to finish top-four’ market, to see which sides are most likely to qualify for the Champions League in the forthcoming season.

After winning four league titles in the last five seasons, it’s unsurprising to see Manchester City the shortest priced side in the top-four betting at 1/33 with bet365. After adding goal-bot Erling Haaland it’s pretty hard to envision Pep’s allstars not finishing in the top-four, with their odds implying a 97% chance of doing so. 

Many punters believe that Liverpool are the only side who can realistically challenge Manchester City in the months ahead. 1/9 with Unibet is the current price on offer for Jurgen’s Reds to finish in the top-four once again in 2022/2023.

Only Liverpool (51) and Manchester City (43) picked up more points than Spurs (41) since the turn of the year, and after making some smart signings this summer including Richarlison, Ivan Perisic and Yves Bissouma, they look well prepared to compete in numerous formats. Antonio Conte guided Tottenham to a fourth-place finish last time out and is 8/11 to do so once again this season. 

Chelsea conceded just three goals in their first ten matches last season, but that proved to be a false dawn, as they went on to finish 19 points behind eventual winners Man City, winning just four of their final 10 matches. Finding a cutting edge in the final third will be key for Tuchel’s side this term and they can be found at 8/11 to qualify for the Champions League via the top-four in the season ahead. 

Arsenal lost nine matches on the road last season and after spending big money in the summer transfer window, the pressure will be on for Mikel Arteta to deliver the Gunners a place in the top-four. Europa League football may also hinder Arsenal’s quest for the Champions League, with most bookmakers offering 6/4 on them doing so for the first time since 2016.

Improving this current Manchester United side looks a long-term project considering how unbalanced the squad looks. Last season was a bit of a disaster under Ralf Rangnick and with the future of Cristiano Ronaldo still uncertain, they look underprepared compared to some of their rivals. For those who fancy Erik Ten Hag to deliver a top-four finish in his first season, 13/8 is the current best price available with SpreadEx.

Newcastle are the shortest priced team of those outside the ‘big-six’, that the bookmakers think could break into the top-four in 22/23. The Magpies should be full of confidence after a strong finish to last season, and with Eddie Howe’s measured approach, they can continue to progress towards their long-term goals. A top-four finish, with Paddy Power and Betfair can be backed at 17/2. 

West Ham are close to a deal for Sassuolo striker Gianluca Scamacca for a reported £35m as they look to bolster their attack ahead of the new season. The Hammers finished seventh last time out, but still 15 points away outside the top-four. Jarrod Bowen continues to impress, and with Declan Rice in midfield, David Moyes possesses one of the Premier League’s prized possessions. It’s tough to see West Ham improving on last season and they are 14/1 with most firms to finish in the top-four.

Leicester can be backed at a best-price of 20/1 to return to the Champions League for the first time since 2017. The Foxes missed out on a top-four finish on the final day of the season in both 2020, and 2021 before going on to finish 8th in the most recent campaign. Leicester should benefit from no European commitments this season and with plenty of young talent, it would be no surprise to see them improve on their finishing position of last term under Brendan Rodgers. 

Aston Villa look to have made some smart signings this summer in the form of Diego Carlos and Boubacar Kamara. Steven Gerrard has a strong youth set-up at his disposal with bright young talented players such as Jacob Ramsey and Cameron Archer. If he can find a way to get the most out of both Emi Buendia and Phillippe Countinho, Villa can surge into the top-half this term. Top-four backers can get Gerrard’s men onside at 20/1 in this market.

We now move into the teams at the bigger prices, starting with Brighton at 33/1. The Seagulls finished in the top-half last season but may struggle to replicate that success after losing Yves Bissouma in the middle of the park. Only three sides averaged more possession per game than Brighton last term and a top-half finish would be a respectable achievement once again in 22/23.

Losing Richarlison is a big blow for Everton after their turbulent 2021/2022 campaign. Frank Lampard will now attempt to make some recognisable progress on the pitch, but the Toffees do look short of options in attack, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s fitness and form vital in the coming months. 50/1 is the best price available for a huge change in fortunes for the Everton faithful and a top-four finish.

Wolves can also be backed at 50/1, but were the lowest scorers outside the relegated teams last season, finding the net just 38 times. Bruno Lage’s men did finish 10th in the standings, although his side ended the campaign in shocking form, taking just two points from their final seven matches. 

Southampton are another side with plenty of work to do in the season ahead with some pundits under the assumption that Saints will struggle. Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side dropped 29 points from winning positions last season and are as big as 100/1 with Sky-Bet to turn things around and finish in the top-four.

Crystal Palace, Leeds and Brentford can also be backed at 100/1, with the three newly promoted teams of Nottingham Forest, Fulham and Bournemouth all at 200/1 with a number of bookmakers. Newly promoted teams have only ever finished in the top-four in their debut season on three occasions in Premier League history - Blackburn (4th,1992/1993), Nottingham Forest (3rd, 1994/1995), and Newcastle (3rd, 1993/1994).