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Premier League Tips: Four bets including a 50/1 cross game multi

Semi Ajayi featured in Tuesday's Premier League tips.
Semi Ajayi featured in Tuesday's Premier League tips.

For Tuesday's Premier League action I have three picks from the booking and shots on target markets priced at 16/5, 7/5 and 15/2. Please gamble responsibly though.

Arsenal will be looking to build on a huge Boxing Day victory over Chelsea and gain some traction on the proceedings in the league. Mikel Arteta's men's sub-par start to their 20/21 campaign sees them languish in 15th with their victory at the Emirates being their first in five. However, the Gunners will be bolstered by the return of their talisman Pierrer-Emerick Aubameyang, who has shaken off the calf issue that has kept him sidelined recently.

Despite taking the lead twice vs West Ham, Brighton only came away from the capital with a point. Graham Potter has confirmed that Tariq Lamptey and Adam Lallana will not be fit for this one so Steven Alzate will likely start in CM for the hosts.

Brighton's Boxing Day foe West Ham face another opposition from the South Coast as they head to Southampton. Southampton have failed to win any of their last three games and will be hoping to best a side that has beat them in their last five head to heads. Like the Saints, West Ham come into his one win-less in three and David Moyes will likely be without his main man Michail Antonio.

My tip with the longest odds comes via The Hawthorns as West Brom welcome Leeds tomorrow evening. Big Sam showcased a masterpiece as his Baggies side snatched a point from the Champions clutches. Allardyce could reward Matteus Pereira with a start following his assist vs Liverpool.

Leeds centre back Liam Cooper took to Twitter to congratulate his side following his sides “Beautifully ugly” win at Turf Moor. If his side are going to get another result, they will have to go to the trenches again tomorrow.

Today's football tips
Brighton v Arsenal
Tue, 18:00
JimmyThePunt: Dan Burn to be booked
WIN PROB: 23.81%
16/5
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Averaging 1.5 fouls per game up against a potential resurgent Arsenal.
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-28 15:15 Odds subject to change.

Dan Burn has had his name taken in half of his last four Premier League starts, averaging 1.5 fouls per game in that time. At 6ft 5, it makes it a little unorthodox for Graham Potter to play him on the left side of defence but when he starts that is where he plays.

Burn's cumbersome frame exaggerates the fouls he commits, especially in the position he plays as it means he often opposes small, tricky players. Vs Arsenal, he may start LCB in a back three of LB in a back four, either way his direct opponent will be either Pepe or Saka, both of which pose a daunting threat.

Saka is Arsenal's most fouled player, drawing an average of two per game this season. The last time these sides met, Dan Burn was booked trying to contain Pepe. Craig Pawson has the whistle for this one, he has averaged 3.22Y per game this season.

Premier League betting
Southampton v West Ham
Tue, 18:00
JimmyThePunt: Jarrod Bowen 1+ shots on target
WIN PROB: 41.67%
7/5
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Massive value given how short he is elsewhere and averaging over two shots per game this season.
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-28 15:25 Odds subject to change.

Everywhere has Jarrod Bowen odds on to register a shot on target on the South Coast tomorrow, he is just 4/11 with Betfred, so Betfair and Paddy Powers price of 7/5 really is breaking the mould.

Bowen had to be patient at first following his switch from Humberside but he is enjoying a run in the side this season after biding his time. He has averaged 2.2 shots per game this season and 0.45 SoT per 90 minutes. With talisman Micheal Antonio sidelined, this makes Bowen the Hammers top shooting. In his last eight games this bet has only landed three times, however, 48% of his 21 shots during that time have being goal-bound.

West Brom v Leeds
Tue, 18:00
JimmyThePunt: Semi Ajayi 1+ shots on target
WIN PROB: 11.76%
15/2
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Scorer at Anfield the West Brom three shots in his last four games.
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-28 15:30 Odds subject to change.

In his first ten EPL games this season, Semi Ajayi did not register a single shot and in his last four games he has had three shots! He scored the equaliser at Anfield and was desperately unlucky to have his effort vs Man City ruled as an OG.

Betfair and Paddy Power have him priced at 15/2 to hit the target when the Baggies welcome Leeds tomorrow, the same bet is only 29/10 with Ladbrokes. Betfair's price for a shot on target, is a longer price then Bet365 have him to score anytime!

West Brom have scored 46% of their goals from set pieces and Leeds have being woeful at defending them with no side has conceding more than their nine goals. 21% of the shots Leeds have conceded this season have come via corners and set pieces with an xGA of 6.54. 

JimmyThePunt Cross Game Multi
Tue
Dan Burn booking, Jarrod Bowen & Semi Ajayi 1+ SOT
WIN PROB: 1.96%
50/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Brighton v Arsenal - Burn booked in two of his last four starts
  • Southampton v West Ham - Bowen is a great price given he's averaging over two shots per game
  • West Brom v Leeds - Ajayi scored at the weekend and has three shots in last four games.
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-28 15:50 Odds subject to change.

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