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Premier League Tips: Tom Cairney offers some Boxing Day value

Tom Cairney features in JJ Value's Premier League tips on Boxing Day.
Tom Cairney features in JJ Value's Premier League tips on Boxing Day.

We caught up with tipster @JJValueHunter who has four bets plus a cross-game-multi for Boxing Day's action from the Premier League...

Fulham v Southampton

Fulham’s team has been very hard to predict of late with Scott Parker switching between systems and personnel freely.

The same can’t be said for Southampton who have a very settled lineup in their familiar 442 system. That will change this week though with Danny Ings likely to be missing through injury and their midfield anchor Oriel Romeu suspended.

I agree Southampton should be favourites here but I think it will be closer than the bookies currently have it priced up.

In Fulham’s last match they started with Tom Cairney and Ameola Lookman playing off Mitrovic up front. I’m hoping they adopt this system once again as Cairney's shot on target prices of 2/1 for 1+ and 13/1 for 2+ are my standout plays.

He’s managed 5 shots on target in his last 6 starts, and a few of those were in a deeper role, if he continues to be given attacking license then that could look a big price especially as he will be exploiting Southampton’s most vulnerable area given Romeu is suspended.

Today's football tips
Fulham v Southampton
Sat, 15:00
JJ Value: Tom Cairney 1+ shots on target
  • The Fulham midfielder has managed five shots on target in his last six starts.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-23 18:25 Odds subject to change.
JJ Value: Tom Cairney 2+ shots on target
  • If Cairney adopts a more attacking role then this bet looks value, especially with Romeu suspended.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-23 18:25 Odds subject to change.

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace

For me Villa have been my favourite side to watch this season and I simply have to get them onside again here especially as their opponents are coming off the back of a 7-0 drumming.

Aston Villa have been the most prolific shooters at home this season averaging a whopping 18.7 shots per game so far, so the 11/4 on them hitting 18+ here is a tempting price given they will see this as an easier than average home fixture.

Regardless of how they line up its tough to see how palace will be able to keep Villa quiet, if they defend deep then the likes of McGinn, Luiz and in particular El Ghazi will happily fire shots in from range and if you press them higher then Traore and Watkins will cause plenty of problems in behind.

Palace themselves would prefer an end to end game I’m sure given the threat they possess on the counter and they have the quality to score goals against an average Villa defence but whatever the score line I fully expect Villa to dominate the shot count come full time.

Premier League Betting
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Sat, 15:00
JJ Value: Aston Villa 18+ shots
  • Villa have been prolific shooters at home averaging over 18 shots per game, the most in the league.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-23 18:30 Odds subject to change.

Arsenal v Chelsea

Neither of these two sides have performed that well of late although Chelsea do have the knack of still gaining points even when they aren’t at their best.

Arsenal look shaky all over the park right now but the one positive is that they do look a threat out wide. They have plenty of pace in those areas regardless of who plays, Saka, Bellerin, Maitland-Niles, Pepe, Willian, Martinelli and Aubameyang can all cause Chelsea problems especially given Chelsea’s two first choice full backs look likely to miss out through injury.

Azpilicueta and Emerson aren’t quite as pacy or dynamic, so given that I can see Arsenal targeting those areas I think the best angle could well be Arsenal corners.

Arsenal are 5/4 for 6+ corners and they are averaging 6.29 corners at home so far this season so it’s a price I’m happy to take.

It’s also one to watch in-play, if Arsenal go behind in the game I may even look at backing some of the double figure corner prices as I can’t see Arsenal having the ability to play through Chelsea so getting wide and crosses in looks to be their best option.

Arsenal v Chelsea
Sat, 15:00
JJ Value: Arsenal over 5.5. corners
  • Arsenal potentially a threat out wide with Chelsea's first choice full backs a doubt through injury. 
Odds correct as of 2020-12-23 18:30 Odds subject to change.
Boxing Day Cross Game Multi
Sat, 15:00
JJ Value: Cairney 2+ shots on target, Villa 18+ shots & Arsenal 5.5+ corners
  • Check out my reasoning above.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-23 18:35 Odds subject to change.
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