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Premier League Outright Betting: Are we being primed for a huge upset in 2020-21?

Premier League Outright Betting: Leeds look the real deal
Premier League Outright Betting: Leeds look the real deal

The 2020-21 season has started with a bang

The Premier League title race is still wide open after another crazy weekend in the top-flight draws to a conclusion. 

While there are still two matches left to play this evening, the main bulk of the action took place across the previous three days, featuring more twists and turns than Sam Allardyce at an all-inclusive buffet. 

Leeds' odds for the title slashed following Villa triumph

Friday night saw Leeds United completely blow Aston Villa away in their own backyard, beating Dean Smith’s side - who were unbeaten prior to the clash - 3-0 thanks to a stunning hat-trick from Patrick Bamford. Marcelo Bielsa’s side continue to impress following their promotion to the Premier League; they have now taken 10 points from a possible 18 and sit 5th in the table as we head into November. 

The Whites’ recent form - which has seen them go toe-to-toe with champions Liverpool in a seven-goal thriller on the opening day, and match City for quality in a 1-1 draw earlier this month - has seen their odds in the Premier League winner betting market slashed considerably from 500/1 (pre-season) to 50/1, while their odds to make the top-six are now as short as 4/1 with certain bookmakers, cut significantly from the 12/1 price they could be found at before the campaign started.

Elsewhere, Manchester City passed up the opportunity to close the gap on main title-rivals Liverpool with a disappointing 1-1 draw with West Ham on Saturday. Pep Guardiola’s side have now only obtained eight points from a potential 15, leaving them languishing in 13th-place at this early stage and five points adrift of Jurgen Klopp’s side.

Premier League Betting

City are still the bookmaker favourites to win the league, however, given an implied 40% chance of scooping the trophy next May with their odds of 6/4, although having watched them so far, that’s not a bet I’d be rushing to get behind just yet. 

Liverpool are second-favourites in the betting, priced at 5/2 - an implied 28% chance - but they are another side who look a shadow of their former selves this term, especially without their talismanic defender Virgil van Dijk, out injured for the foreseeable, shoring up the back-line.

The Reds limped past basement-dwellers Sheffield United this weekend, narrowly winning 2-1 at Anfield, and although they currently sit second in the table they have, like City, also dropped valuable points so far and you’d struggle to find many people who are genuinely confident in them retaining their Premier League crown this season.

Everton's unbeaten record thwarted on the south coast

Following Aston Villa’s collapse against Leeds on Friday night, Everton were the only side in the top-flight with a 100% unbeaten record to protect heading into their clash against Southampton on Sunday afternoon.

The Toffees, 40/1 in the outright betting, have been fantastic this season and were the bookies favourites for the win at St Mary’s. Indeed, without Richarlison - who was missing through suspension following his dismissal in last weekend’s Merseyside derby - Carlo Ancelotti’s side came unstuck and were completely outplayed by a ravenous Southampton outfit who deserved all three points on home soil. 

Premier League Top 4 Odds

The Saints nullified Everton’s key threats, with James Rodriguez and Dominic Calvert-Lewin both kept quiet - the latter not even registering one shot throughout the whole 90, which sees his perfect start to the season (seven goals in five games) also brought to an end.

The Blues do remain top of the pile, ahead of rivals Liverpool on goal difference, but it will be interesting to see how that defeat affects them next week against Newcastle and if they can bounce back with a win at St James’ Park, something that will be tricky without Lucas Digne, as the Frenchman joins Richarlison on the suspension list after he was given his marching orders for a rash challenge on Kyle Walker-Peters yesterday.

Could a repeat of the 2015-16 season be on the cards? Surely not...

So, with no team grabbing the ball by the horns as of yet, it remains extremely unclear who will win this season’s title.

A campaign which for many reasons has felt, and continues to feel, strange and surreal due to the factors which surround it in these unprecedented times, is following a certain pattern of chaos and anarchy on the pitch as well as off of it. To tell the truth, though, it is refreshingly fantastic for us, as fans, to watch - the only crime is that nobody is around to witness it first hand, and that our fix must for now come via the television.

Anyone can beat anyone, reminiscent of the mad house that is the Championship: long may it continue. And, while the odds suggest that it will be Pep Guardiola and Manchester City who prevail once again in seven months time, if the first six weeks of this enthralling campaign has taught us anything, it’s that you might rather want to take a punt on the outsider; one which plays in white, perhaps.

Pepper
Premier League Winner Odds

Liverpool
WIN PROB: 42%
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Manchester City
WIN PROB: 27%
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Tottenham
WIN PROB: 15%
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Chelsea
WIN PROB: 15%
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Leicester
WIN PROB: 3%
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Manchester United
WIN PROB: 2%
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Arsenal
WIN PROB: 1%
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Everton
WIN PROB: 1%
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Southampton
WIN PROB: 0%
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Aston Villa
WIN PROB: 0%
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Wolverhampton
WIN PROB: 0%
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Leeds
WIN PROB: 0%
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West Ham
WIN PROB: 0%
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Crystal Palace
WIN PROB: 0%
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Brighton
WIN PROB: 0%
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Burnley
WIN PROB: 0%
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Newcastle
WIN PROB: 0%
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Sheffield United
WIN PROB: 0%
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West Bromwich
WIN PROB: 0%
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Fulham
WIN PROB: 0%
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Each Way Terms
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-11-26 07:08 Odds subject to change.
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